Late winter outlook amid February thaw
The final month of meteorological winter is here, marking a turning point in the cold season as days slowly grow longer and shots of arctic air become a little less frequent.
In fact, conditions will even feel spring-like at times across Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas over the next 6 to 10 days, with above average temperatures in the forecast. Call it ‘fools spring’ or the ‘February thaw’, what little snow is left in the local landscape will soon be melted completely.
Looking back at the first two months of winter, conditions were topsy turvy in terms of temperature and snowfall trends here in the Mid-Missouri River Valley. December started off on a cold and snowy note, with below average temperatures and an inch or two of snow on the ground for the first week or so. Then came a spell of mild weather for nearly two thirds of the month featuring above average temperatures that more or less persisted into the first half of January, peaking with a daily record high of 68 degrees at Rosecrans Airport on January 7.
The part of January 2026 that sticks out most in our memories would of course be the final week, laced with brutal cold and rounds of snow. Including two daily record lows for St. Joseph at -15 and -16 degrees respectively, 6 days in total of subzero lows, and 9 consecutive days of subfreezing temperatures. Brrr!
In terms of snow stats so far this season, numbers have been modest across Northwest Missouri with about 8 inches of snow in St. Joseph since fall 2025. Totals are even lower in much of Nodaway, Holt, and Atchison counties, tallying less than 5 inches of snow so far this winter. On average our region counts 18 to 19 inches of snow per season, so we still have a ways to go before the numbers measure up closer to ‘normal’.
While winter may be waning, there’s still plenty of opportunity for additional snowfall and bouts of bitterly cold air. The forecast becomes more fuzzy by the final days of February and into early March, but history tells us measurable snowfall is typical well into March here in the central plains.
The Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlook gives near equal chances of above or below normal temperatures in Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas for February as a whole. This suggests a better opportunity for more wintry scenes near the end of the month. After all, it only takes one storm to bring back the winter wonderland, even if only for a few days.
