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Brazil’s Bolsonaro on trial: house arrest, coup charges, and US pressure explained

<i>Arthur Menescal/Bloomberg/Getty Images via CNN Newsource</i><br/>

By CNN Newsource

Published September 2, 2025 9:24 am

By Julia Vargas Jones, CNN

(CNN) — Brazil’s Supreme Court opened a landmark trial Tuesday against former President Jair Bolsonaro, who stands accused of plotting to overturn the country’s 2022 election and cling to power.

The case, unprecedented in Brazil’s modern democracy, could – if he is found guilty – send the right-wing populist to prison for decades and reshape the country’s political future.

Prosecutors allege Bolsonaro and his closest allies orchestrated a coup d’état plan that included discussions about assassinating sitting President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, his vice president, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the trial.

Bolsonaro, already under house arrest for defying court restrictions, has denied any wrongdoing. The former president will face trial alongside seven top aides and former ministers who prosecutors allege acted as the “nerve center” of a criminal organization intent on dismantling democratic rule.

The trial

The trial will run across multiple sessions between September 2 and 12, before a five-member panel of the Supreme Court. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has led the investigation into Bolsonaro and was himself a target of the alleged plot, will open proceedings with a summary of the sprawling case before delivering the first vote.

His colleagues, four justices appointed by President Lula and his left-wing predecessor Dilma Rousseff, will follow (De Moraes was nominated by Michel Temer, the center right president that succeeded Dilma after impeachment). Once voting concludes, if Bolsonaro and his co-defendants are convicted, the justices will also discuss sentencing. Defense lawyers could still file appeals depending on how the votes are configured, but once those challenges are exhausted, the ruling becomes final and any prison terms can be enforced.

The court’s calendar means the proceedings will overlap with Brazil’s Independence Day on September 7 — a date seized on by Bolsonaro and his movement as a show of political force in recent years. Since his rise to power, supporters have widely adopted the green-and-yellow national flag and soccer jersey into pro-Bolsonaro emblems. Federal authorities say they are on alert for demonstrations during the holiday, watching for celebrations that may spill into political rallies or unrest as the former president’s fate hangs in the balance.

Bolsonaro and his allies are facing charges of leading an armed criminal organization, attempting to abolish Brazil’s democratic order by force, plotting a coup d’état, and committing violent acts against state institutions. They are also charged with damaging protected public property during the January 8, 2023, storming of government buildings by Bolsonaro supporters.

If convicted, Bolsonaro could face more than 40 years in prison. Analysts say any punishment would likely not be immediate, given the potential for appeals. Still, the case represents the final stage of a sweeping investigation and a decisive moment for whether Brazil’s highest court holds a former president criminally accountable for an alleged attempt to upend the country’s democracy and undermine its elections.

The evidence against Bolsonaro and his allies largely centers on how he allegedly tried to cling to power after losing to Lula in 2022. Federal police say the former president had “full knowledge” of a plan to overturn the election results, pressure the military to intervene, and even create a parallel “crisis management office” to run the government. Court filings also describe discussions of assassinating Lula, his vice president Geraldo Alckmin, and Justice de Moraes.

At the same time, Bolsonaro faces mounting scrutiny from a separate police investigation into obstruction of justice. An August 20 Federal Police report accused him and his son Eduardo of trying to interfere in the coup trial itself, including by seeking US sanctions against Brazilian officials and coordinating pressure campaigns through close allies.

Forensic analysis of Bolsonaro’s phone also uncovered a 33-page draft letter requesting political asylum from Argentina’s President Javier Milei, as well as conversations with representatives of Donald Trump’s media companies in the United States, according to the Federal Police report. Investigators say the findings reinforce their view that Bolsonaro remains a flight risk and has repeatedly defied court orders while under house arrest.

Pressure from Trump

The trial has also triggered a full-blown diplomatic clash with the United States. In a July 9 letter to President Lula, US President Donald Trump called Bolsonaro’s prosecution a “witch hunt” and demanded it “end immediately.”

He warned that unless the case was halted, the US would impose heavy economic penalties on Brazil. Weeks later, Trump followed through: a White House fact sheet declared a national emergency and raised tariffs on Brazilian imports to 50%, explicitly citing Bolsonaro’s trial and Brazil’s treatment of US tech companies as justification.

The statement accused Brazil’s Supreme Court – and Justice Alexandre de Moraes in particular – of “politically motivated persecution” and “serious human rights abuses.”

The Trump administration also sanctioned Moraes and revoked US visas for him, his colleagues, and their families. Washington further condemned the order placing Bolsonaro under house arrest, saying Moraes was using Brazil’s institutions “to silence opposition and threaten democracy.”

Lula has been categorical with his responses to Trump, blasting the moves as “unacceptable interference” and arguing that his country is a democracy with checks and balances, and that no president, foreign or domestic, can dictate the Supreme Court’s decisions.

Bolsonaro and his son Eduardo have long cultivated ties inside Trump’s orbit and built influence in the MAGA movement. Their lobbying has paid off: the US has taken the extraordinary step of imposing tariffs, visa bans, and sanctions in direct response to the trial of a political ally.

Moraes, who has led a years-long high-profile crackdown on online disinformation, has become the central figure of this dispute, drawing fire not only from Bolsonaro’s camp but also from Trump’s media allies and tech platforms that have clashed with his orders. His months-long spat with Elon Musk over X, formerly Twitter, and his demands that platforms block accounts tied to the January 8 riots have made him a symbol of Brazil’s aggressive fight against disinformation — and now, the unlikely target of American foreign policy.

For Brazil, the case is a stress test for its institutions. Supporters see it as proof the judiciary is holding the executive power accountable. Critics point to the courts’ expanded powers in recent years as a potential threat to the very democracy it has been trying to protect, and regardless of the verdict, the trial risks deepening polarization in a country already severely politically divided.