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Democrats race toward 2028 while Republicans take a wait-and-see approach

<i>AP/Getty Images via CNN Newsource</i><br/>From left

By CNN Newsource

Published May 13, 2025 5:00 am

By Arit John, CNN

(CNN) — The 2028 presidential primary contests are still nearly three years away, but the early jockeying to replace President Donald Trump has already started in earnest — at least among Democrats.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who narrowly won the 2020 Iowa caucuses, is back in Cedar Rapids on Tuesday for a veterans-focused town hall. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democrats’ 2024 vice presidential nominee, and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore are attending events in South Carolina, a longtime early primary state, at the end of the month. Other would-be leaders of the party have started floating their names as possible contenders, beefing up their fundraising apparatuses, launching podcasts and visiting key states.

While Republicans appear wary of stepping on Trump’s toes during the early days of his second term, Democrats are rushing to fill a leadership vacuum caused by their 2024 losses and uneven response to the current administration.

“I think [voters] are hungry and thirsty for what comes next, and these people see a political opportunity to fill that void and to make a name for themselves,” said one former 2020 Democratic presidential campaign staffer. “Talk about their records, do more interviews, do more alternative media, start PACs, raise money, hire a small team, travel around the country — I think everybody sees an opening.”

The rush signals the potential for a wide-open Democratic field, even as former Vice President Kamala Harris weighs whether to run for governor of California in 2026 or launch a third bid for the White House.

The next election cycle could rival 2020, when more than two dozen people sought the party’s nomination. Candidates began launching their campaigns as early as summer 2017, while more than a dozen people started running in the winter and spring following the 2018 midterms.

While the contours of a 2028 race are still difficult to divine at this stage, Democratic voters will likely look to candidates to articulate why they lost the last election and how best to defeat Trump’s Make America Great Again movement, whose followers will be searching for an heir to the president. Already, those who have floated their names or said they’re fielding calls about running have laid out their approach to taking on Trump’s GOP successor.

Asked by veteran Democratic strategist (and CNN political analyst) David Axelrod last month whether she is considering a run, former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said “yes,” before saying Democrats need to engage in deep introspection.

“Where did we go wrong?” she said. “What are our policies going to be? What is our platform going to be? What will our tactics be? How will we overcome this impression that we’re elitist?”

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has distinguished himself from other Democratic governors by aggressively taking on Trump and criticizing his own party’s “simpering timidity,” including during a fiery speech in New Hampshire last month. Kentucky’s Andy Beshear — the two-term red-state governor who recently said he would “consider” running for president — has started a podcast and is elevating his national profile. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has also jumped into the podcast game, angering members of his party along the way by breaking with many Democrats leaders on issues such as transgender athletes’ participation in sports.

Others have participated in the growing trend of Democratic lawmakers holding town halls in districts held by Republicans. Walz, who has not ruled out a 2028 presidential run, held several events this spring. Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, who outperformed Harris to earn a battleground state Trump won last year and who has become a leading voice on how to win back moderates, held his own event in Pennsylvania over the weekend.

A few elected officials have been more coy. Governors such as Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Moore of Maryland have stressed their commitment to their work at home and have brushed off the “resistance” label.

“I am not running,” Moore said when asked whether he would run for president in 2028 during an appearance on the “The View” this month.

“I’m really excited about the work that’s happening right now in the state of Maryland,” he said.

Of course, today’s answer is not always tomorrow’s: Then-Sen. Barack Obama said in January 2006 that he would not run for president and would serve his full six-year term only to launch a campaign in February 2007.

A Democratic strategist advising a possible 2028 candidate said they thought the future primary would be a “healthy” size, which they said was a positive. Some of the policy ideas in major Biden administration laws such as the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act originated during the 2020 presidential primary. The next primary could offer a range of theories on how Democrats can defeat Trump’s successor.

“The more people who step forward and say, ‘This is why I think we lost, and this is how I will be able to win people over and this is the long term vision I have for our country,’ the better,” the strategist said.

Harris has also started to reemerge since last year’s election loss and leaving Washington four months ago. The former vice president recently spoke at a gala hosted by Emerge, which works with women interested in running for politics, and appeared at a fundraiser for the Democratic National Committee. She also made a surprise appearance at the Met Gala in New York, though she skipped the red carpet.

Looming over every appearance is the question of what Harris will do next: Either run for California governor, where her entrance into the race could clear the field, or wade into a crowded Democratic primary in 2028, where her opponents might attempt to magnify her failed 2020 and 2024 runs.

The 2020 Democratic campaign staffer pointed to Harris’ poor showing in 2019 — when she dropped out before the Iowa caucuses — and her losses to Trump last November in every swing state.

“If the battleground states would have been more muddled, [or if] she would have won the popular vote, I think that there’d be a bigger push for her to stay involved at the presidential level,” they said.

A delayed start on the right

Prospective Republican candidates, meanwhile, seem to be giving the president breathing room to enact his agenda and waiting to see what sort of influence he’ll have in 2028, particularly when it comes to Vice President JD Vance. After weeks of flirting with the idea of a constitutionally prohibited third term in office — including selling “Trump 2028” hats — Trump told NBC News in an interview last week he’s “not looking at” another campaign.

In the same interview, Trump pointed to two potential successors: Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Most of the 2028 GOP field is taking a “wait-and-see approach” to the presidential contest and whether Trump lets the race play out or throws his weight behind Vance or another candidate, said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who worked on Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign.

“The leadership vacuum [on the left] is going to draw people into the presidential race sooner. There’s no leadership vacuum” among Republicans, Conant said. “If anything, it’s a crowded room filled by one man.”

Unlike Democrats, Republicans traveling to early primary states do so at their own peril, said Bill Stepien, a GOP strategist who managed Trump’s 2020 campaign.

“Everyone knows why you’re in Manchester, New Hampshire, or Ames, Iowa. You’re not fooling anybody,” he said. “The advice is to do the job you have and do it really, really well.”

Some prospective candidates have received the message. The New Hampshire Republican Party was in discussion late last year with two prospective GOP presidential contenders about headlining events in 2025, one person with knowledge of the planning told CNN. But after Trump’s inauguration, the conversations abruptly ended.

“Since then, there’s been crickets,” the person said. “It’s almost as if the word has gotten out not to rain on Trump’s parade.” The New Hampshire Republican Party did not respond to requests for comment.

The dark period is a stark change from the summer of 2024, when many of the GOP’s ascending stars appeared eager to court Granite State Republicans at the party’s July convention. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Sen. Tom Cotton, both of Arkansas, addressed the New Hampshire delegation while several others had a more intimate and private audience, the source said.

Convention organizers assigned New Hampshire attendees to a hotel in Lake Geneva, Wisconsin — an hour away from the convention in downtown Milwaukee, fueling speculation that Trump’s advisers didn’t want ambitious Republicans hobnobbing too much with the delegates from the first-in-the-nation primary.

Now, the expectation is that activity will remain limited through 2025.

“No one is informally laying the groundwork, no one is organizing to a ‘Draft X Candidate’ committee,” said the person familiar with the New Hampshire GOP’s discussions. “I don’t see anything happening this year.”

Another GOP strategist said prospective candidates who would normally use this time to start super PACs and deliver set-piece speeches need to instead take a more subtle approach oriented around supporting the administration.

“You’re going to get yourself on Fox [News] as much as possible. You’re going to try to do something high profile to support the president, but then you’re quietly thinking, ‘All right, what am I going to need? How can I raise a whole bunch of money?’” the strategist said. “I wouldn’t be going to Iowa and New Hampshire yet.”