Kennedy said there will be autism answers this month. With public health agencies in upheaval, autism advocates are alarmed

By Sarah Owermohle, CNN

(CNN) — US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pledged in April that there would be answers on the causes of autism this month. Since then, he has ousted public health officials, publicly rebuked studies showing no link between vaccines and autism, and said “interventions” are “almost certainly” responsible for causing rising autism rates.

And the proposed autism studies have not started.

Thousands of researchers hailing from the top universities and institutions in the country have applied for the federal funding that Kennedy announced in April. The US National Institutes of Health is expected this month to announce up to 25 awardees for the $50 million “massive research and testing effort.”

Among the applicants are longtime veterans of the field from Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard University, Johns Hopkins University, the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai and the Mayo Clinic, according to document provided to CNN. They also include biotechnology, digital health and gene therapy companies, counseling groups and hospital networks.

Each of the grants is slated for two to three years of studies. Some of the researchers say they can provide analysis a bit faster; none who spoke to CNN says that they can provide firm answers this month. That leaves autism experts confused, and alarmed, about what Kennedy says he already knows about autism — and where that leaves research that has not begun.

“There’s just this inherent contradiction that they are planning to spend $50 million over the next two to three years on the [Autism Data Science] Initiative, when Kennedy has announced he’s already got the answers,” said Dr. Helen Tager-Flusberg, director of Boston University’s Center for Autism Research Excellence. At least 28 researchers affiliated with Boston University or its medical center have applied for these grants, according to the list provided to CNN.

Kennedy’s confidence about previewing autism conclusions this month comes amid broad upheaval for federal health agencies, including the ouster of US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Susan Monarez, the resignation of many of her top deputies and calls from more than 1,000 current and former HHS employees for Kennedy to resign. Senators say they will question the secretary on the CDC actions on Thursday during a hearing on the president’s health agenda.

The turmoil has autism researchers and advocates increasingly concerned about the future of the nascent Autism Data Science Initiative, particularly among reports that David Geier, a longtime vaccine critic who’s now an HHS contractor, is preparing his own analysis using federal data.

“It’s highly unusual to announce you have the results of a study before the study even begins,” said Alison Singer, founder of the nonprofit Autism Science Foundation. At least four foundation-supported researchers have applied for the Autism Data Science Initiative grants.

Kennedy: ‘Interventions’ causing autism

Kennedy told President Donald Trump in a Cabinet meeting in August that the unprecedented federal effort to find the root causes of autism was on track for announcement this month.

The initial announcement caused furor among autism advocates who questioned how conclusions could be drawn so quickly and whether this would be the vehicle to renew debunked claims that vaccines cause autism.

“We will have announcements as promised in September, finding interventions, certain interventions, now that are clearly, almost certainly, causing autism,” Kennedy said.

Trump responded: “There has to be something artificially causing this, meaning, a drug or something.”

There is extensive existing research showing no link between pharmaceuticals, vaccinations and autism.

But analysis of existing HHS records on vaccine safety was already underway, according to multiple people familiar with internal conversations and the turmoil that saw several CDC officials depart last week.

Geier, a close Kennedy ally and longtime critic of vaccines, has been on the CDC campus for weeks, probing the agency’s data for potential harms from immunizations, according to three people with knowledge of recent events at the CDC.

Dr. Dan Jernigan, a 30-year veteran of the CDC, named Geier’s controversial theories on vaccines and autism when he resigned from his role as director of the National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases last week after Monarez’s ouster. Jernigan told the Washington Post that working with Geier — a longtime proponent of the debunked theory that vaccines cause autism — was his last straw, and it raised concerns about privacy, ethics and science.

Jernigan also raised concerns about impending vaccine decisions in an interview with CNN.

“We want to make sure that [Kennedy] supports the use of vaccines. We want to know that he is using science in helping to make those decisions. But at this point, we have been working with the administration providing data. We don’t know exactly what the processes they’re using with that science,” he told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins. “We don’t know exactly how they’re approaching it. If there is going to be some new findings that are released, we are not sure if those are going to be supportive of vaccines and of scientific approach.”

An HHS spokesperson told CNN that “The Department will follow the science wherever it leads,” and “the initiative expects to issue up to $50 million in awards in September, pending receipt of scientifically meritorious ideas from the research community.” The agency did not comment on Geier’s current work involving the CDC.

The other autism research initiative

Kennedy had previously told senators that Geier is working as a contractor on data from the Vaccine Safety Datalink, the CDC’s system for post-approval surveillance of immunizations. Launched in 1990, the datalink is a partnership with some of the country’s biggest health care systems, drawing in millions of anonymized patient records.

That makes the datalink unique from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, which relies on voluntary reports of harms and side effects following immunizations.

The datalink has been a Geier focus for years. The CDC cut off his access to the database in 2004, writing in a letter that there were reports of “potential breaches in confidentiality and execution of analyses.”

Geier, who has a bachelor’s degree in biology, has also been reprimanded by the Maryland Board of Physicians for practicing medicine without a medical license. In April, House Democrats launched a probe into his hiring at HHS.

But Kennedy has forcefully defended Geier, saying there is a medical establishment vendetta against him and his father, Dr. Mark Geier, because of their studies purporting a link between immunizations and autism, as Kennedy claimed in an X post in July.

“A few of Dr. Geier’s studies have revealed inconvenient facts about the use of mercury in American vaccines. These offenses precipitated the vicious campaign to vilify and marginalize the Geiers,” he wrote. “These sorts of public persecutions and gaslightings are now familiar to thousands of doctors and scientists who asked questions about COVID vaccines.”

Geier did not respond to CNN’s request for comment on his work with CDC vaccine data.

That defense, and Kennedy’s assertion in August that interventions are “almost certainly” causing autism, has researchers on guard that this month’s announcements are a foregone conclusion —  even as they wait on new research funding.

Many of the researchers have applied to investigate environmental toxins, underlying genetic factors and prenatal exposures that could cause autism, said Flusberg, Singer and other researchers who applied for grants but did not want to speak publicly during the process.

They are hopeful that reputable researchers are given the funds and time to draw definitive data that is reviewed by other scientists. The NIH stated that the Autism Data Science Initiative program will support studies that can be validated and replicated by independent researchers — all work that takes a significant amount of time.

It is not clear which studies the NIH will green-light, making it even less clear what Kennedy is referring to with “interventions” causing autism.

“Someone really needs to ask [Dr. Jay] Bhattacharya, the director of NIH, what he thinks is happening. Why is he investing all of this money and effort into the ADSI when his boss already has all the answers?” Tager–Flusberg said.

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