Mortgage rates haven’t been this low in nearly a year. Thank the Fed — but not entirely

By Samantha Delouya, CNN

(CNN) — The Federal Reserve’s rate cut this week is rippling through the housing market, sending mortgage rates lower and spurring a jump in refinancing.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.26% for the week ending September 18, down from 6.35% last week, according to data released Thursday by Freddie Mac.

This is the fourth-straight week of declines as mortgage rates fell in anticipation of the Fed’s quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday.

A growing number of homeowners who locked in mortgages at higher rates over the past few years are jumping in to take advantage of savings.

Refinance application volume jumped nearly 60% last week, compared to the week before, according to a separate report from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Where do mortgage rates go from here?

Although the Fed has signaled that more rate cuts will come, it is unclear whether mortgage rates will continue dropping on a steady path. Mortgage rates don’t directly track the Fed’s moves. Instead, they follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which measures investor expectations for future inflation and economic growth.

The Fed is currently battling both stubborn inflation and a weakening labor market, making its future monetary policy moves murky.

The 10-year has reflected that uncertainty, briefly dropping lower after the Fed announced a rate cut on Wednesday, only to climb even higher in the hours afterward. Those volatile moves may directly impact mortgage rates.

Some mortgage lenders warn that borrowing costs may not fall much further.

“Mortgage rates are forward-looking, and by the time the Fed announces a cut, markets have usually already priced it in,” said Bill Banfield, Rocket Mortgage’s chief business officer. “Rates may stay relatively flat in the short term since markets had already priced in this cut.”

Still, more buyers are turning to adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), betting that rates will decline further in the coming years. The share of borrowers choosing ARMs has climbed to its highest level since 2008, according to the MBA report.

Unlike fixed-rate loans, ARMs can provide temporary relief by offering lower initial rates. But they carry risk: after the introductory period — typically five, seven, or ten years — the rate resets and adjusts with the market. If rates rise in the future, borrowers could see their monthly payments climb as well.

What a slowing economy means for housing

Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist with Zillow’s Economic Research team, said a weakening economic outlook may tamp down demand for housing, even as mortgage rates fall to their lowest levels in nearly a year.

“In times of economic uncertainty, residential mobility stalls; buyers, sellers and renters stay put,” he said. “Heading into the slower season of the housing cycle — when school, holidays and cooler weather dampen housing activity — the impact of any small changes to mortgage rates up or down is likely to be muted.”

At his press conference on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said some of the housing market’s affordability issues may be too big for the central bank to tackle, given its limited mandate. Powell highlighted the steep shortage of homes for sale, which has driven home prices higher.

“There’s a deeper problem here; that’s not a cyclical problem that the Fed can address, and that is just a pretty much nationwide housing shortage,” Powell said.

“A lot of places in the country just don’t have enough housing for people,” he added.

This story has been updated with additional developments.

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