Extreme heat, billion-dollar disasters likely to become normal in Missouri
By My Courier-Tribune
WASHINGTON — From heat waves to tornadoes, new data from federal climate scientists shows continued above-average temperatures and violent weather cycles in Missouri and across the country during the first six months of 2024.
Since January, there have been 15 confirmed weather-related disasters in the U.S. where damages exceeded $1 billion, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s June climate report. These 15 events killed at least 106 people and had a combined cost exceeding $37 billion.
Seven of this year’s billion-dollar events occurred across multiple Midwest states, affecting Missouri, according to NOAA. They included outbreaks of tornadoes in May, baseball-sized hail in March and a “bitterly cold” winter storm in January.
Last year, parts of Missouri were impacted by 11 events categorized as billion-dollar weather disasters.
Missouri State Climatologist Zack Leasor said this year’s weather problems began early, starting with a warm February and March, which contributed to a severe weather season earlier than usual.
“Essentially, it’s not very surprising that we saw all of these near record highs and a number of severe weather warnings, and also severe weather storm reports,” said Leasor, who is also a University of Missouri professor.
This April through May had the second-most confirmed tornadoes since at least 1950. As of July 12, there had been 94 reports of tornadoes, 666 reports of severe wind and 412 reports of severe hail in Missouri, according to NOAA.
Experts point out the potential for more severe weather in the months ahead.
The predicted active tropical season may lead to an above-average number of tornadoes for the rest of this year. Missouri might experience a 2% to 3% increase in severe weather probability for July, according to NOAA.
Other weather phenomena have been above average: June was warmer globally than any previous June on record, according to NOAA. This is also the 13th consecutive month of record-high global temperatures.
This past April was Earth’s warmest April on record, according to NOAA. Globally, May was the warmest on record, and June ranks second-warmest in the contiguous U.S. in the 130-year record.
Overall, it was Missouri’s third-warmest spring on record.
When examining Missouri’s warmest years, these temperature spikes are “certainly concerning,” Leasor said. This can affect the length of the growing season, the volume of snowfall events and agriculture and human health, Leasor said.
Globally, this past January through May was the warmest such period on record, said Karin Gleason, the monitoring section chief for NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, in a media teleconference.
This year’s weather extremes are being fueled in part by El Niño, a climate pattern that dispenses ocean heat into the atmosphere, which has been influencing the weather since May 2023.
The world’s warmest calendar year on record was 2023 — by far. But there is a 60% chance 2024 will be the warmest year on record, and a 100% chance 2024 will be in the top five, according to NOAA.
