Shot of polar air ahead as temperature rollercoaster continues

The last month of meteorological fall is here, and aside from a few brief cool spells, autumn 2025 has proven to be a warm one for Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas. According to records at St. Joseph’s Rosecrans Memorial Airport, about 49 of the past 68 days have run several degrees above average. That’s roughly 72% of the fall season so far, since Sept 1.

Aside from a few ups and downs, a "strong" shot of polar air has yet to sweep across the mid-Missouri River Valley since the toasty days of summer began.

Yes, a handful of nights have dropped below freezing, and even into the upper 20s, but only for a few fleeting hours at a time. Just enough cold to end the growing season and kill sensitive vegetation without putting pipes in danger. 

A sharp cold front is on track to deliver a quick taste of winter and a widespread hard freeze to the Central Plains this weekend. In a bit of a temperature rollercoaster, highs near 70 degrees Friday will plunge into the low 40s and even upper 30s by Sunday.

Sunday night and Monday morning, lows will bottom out near 20 degrees. Much of Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas could even fall into the upper teens, brrr!

The average low this time of year for St. Joseph and surrounding areas is just above freezing, around 33 to 34 degrees. So a low of 19 or 20 degrees is certainly "below normal".

Anyone that’s spent a few years in this part of the country knows, a sudden blast of wintry temperatures during the second half of fall is to be expected and actually quite common. Stats support this idea as well. 

Over the past 30 years, the first low temperature of 20 degrees or less in St. Joseph falls on average around Nov. 15.

"Normal" or not, most will not welcome the biting chill that lies ahead in just a few days. If it’s any consolation, temperatures will not only bounce back by the middle of next week, but likely warm well into the 60s. A reminder of how fickle weather can be here in America’s heartland.