The violence in Nigeria that Trump cites as a reason for military strikes is not limited to Christians

By Nimi Princewill, CNN

(CNN) — US President Donald Trump caused alarm across Nigeria over the weekend when he said he was contemplating military action in Africa’s most populous nation in response to what he claimed was a “mass slaughter” of Christians by Islamist insurgents.

The reality on the ground, experts and analysts say, is a more complex and nuanced one. Both Christians and Muslims — the two main religious groups in the country of more than 230 million people — have been victims of attacks by radical Islamists, they say.

The West African nation has grappled for years with deep-rooted security problems that are driven by various factors, including religiously motivated attacks. Observers say other violent conflicts arise from communal and ethnic tensions, as well as disputes between farmers and herders over limited access to land and water resources.

The Nigerian government rejects claims that it is not doing enough to protect Christians from violence, saying it was bewildered by Trump’s suggestion of a potential military intervention.

“We are shocked that President Trump is mulling an invasion of our country,” Nigerian presidential spokesperson Bayo Onanuga told CNN after the US president instructed the Pentagon to prepare for possible military action.

Additionally, Trump threatened to stop all US aid to Nigeria if its government fails to take steps to stop the killings of Christians. He warned that the proposed intervention would be “fast and vicious,” aimed at eliminating the “Islamic Terrorists” he said were responsible for these atrocities.

Is Trump correct about a mass slaughter of Christians in Nigeria?

As Trump’s war threats echo among Nigerians, his assertion that “Christianity is facing an existential threat in Nigeria” has provoked strong reactions from many within the country.

Nigeria has nearly equal numbers of Christians and Muslims, with the northern region predominantly Muslim and the southern region largely Christian.

In 2012, the Islamist group Boko Haram issued an ultimatum, ordering Christians in the northern region to leave while calling on Muslims in the south to “come back” to the north.

John Joseph Hayab, a pastor who leads the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) in the country’s northern region, where attacks by Islamist groups are prevalent, told CNN that he agrees with Trump’s claim of “systematic killings of Christians” in that area. However, he added, “there has been a little shift in the last two years,” with the scale of the killings reducing.

Hayab said he had presided over numerous mass burials of slain Christians, stating that “every state in northern Nigeria has suffered its own terrible share of killings targeting Christians.”

He urged the Nigerian government to acknowledge the issue and take measures to correct the killings rather than deny them.

“We have raised this matter dozens of times, but nobody hears us,” he claimed, acknowledging the role of US Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in bringing attention to reports of alleged Christian persecution in Nigeria.

In August, the Republican senator introduced a bill calling for sanctions against Nigeria for purported violations of religious freedom.

Some analysts argue that while Christians have been targeted by Boko Haram and other Islamist groups seeking to impose their extreme interpretation of Islamic law, Muslims, including those considered moderate, have also been victims of those groups.

Bulama Bukarti, a Nigerian human rights advocate specializing in security and development, disputed Trump’s comments, telling CNN that they “reflect a dangerous oversimplification of Nigeria’s complex security crisis.”

He stated: “The claim that there is a ‘mass slaughter of Christians’ by ‘Islamic radicals’ distorts the reality on the ground and risks deepening divisions in a country already under immense strain.”

High profile killings in predominantly Christian areas draw international attention

Northern Nigeria has witnessed horrific killings targeting religious groups this year. In April, gunmen believed to be Muslim herders, killed at least 40 people, including children, in a predominantly Christian farming village, the Associated Press reported.

Two months later, more than 100 people were massacred by attackers in Yelwata, a largely Christian community in Benue state, also in the north-central, according to Amnesty International.

Pope Leo XIV offered prayers for the victims of the Yelwata attack, many of whom were “internally displaced persons sheltered by a local Catholic mission,” a Vatican news report said.

Outside the northern region, such targeted killings are rare. A a mass shooting at a church in Owo, a community in southwestern Nigeria, left dozens dead in 2022. Court filings seen by Reuters linked the suspects in the Owo massacre to al-Shabaab, a militant group affiliated with al-Qaeda operating in East Africa.

Muslims have also been victims of targeted killings this year. In August, at least 50 worshippers were killed — some shot, others burned alive — when gunmen attacked a mosque in the north-western Katsina State, Reuters reported.

Many similarly brutal attacks have been carried out in Muslim communities by Boko Haram and other armed groups in Nigeria’s predominantly Muslim north.

“Yes, these (extremist) groups have sadly killed many Christians. However, they have also massacred tens of thousands of Muslims,” Bukarti said. He noted that “the groups’ attacks on other civilian locations such as markets, bus stops and refugee camps (disproportionately) harm Muslims,” as the states where the radical groups operate are predominantly Muslim.

“Mr. Trump’s rhetoric (suggesting a mass slaughter of Christians) not only misinforms the international community but also risks fuelling extremist propaganda and undermining local efforts to build peace,” he added.

What does the data reveal?

Claims that Christians are being disproportionately targeted by extremists in Nigeria are not supported by what little data is available.

Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, a crisis-monitoring group, reported that more than 20,400 civilians were killed in attacks in Nigeria between January 2020 and September of this year. Among those casualties, 317 deaths were attributed to attacks targeting Christians, while 417 deaths were reported among Muslims, though the organization did not include the religious affiliation of the vast majority of the civilians killed.

Security analyst Nnamdi Obasi, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group think tank, explained that while extremist groups have wreaked havoc against both Christians and Muslims in the northeast of Nigeria, bandit groups have terrorized predominantly Muslim communities in the northwest. Additionally, predominantly Christian farming communities in parts of the North Central zone have suffered persistent violence from armed groups.

However, “in most parts of the country, Christians and Muslims live peacefully with each other,” he said. “Reports of widespread persecution and mass slaughter of Christians are seriously misread and exaggerate the challenges of interfaith relations in the country.”

Ken Eluma Asogwa, a spokesperson for the opposition Labour Party, told CNN that “even though the government of Nigeria has been lackluster and shambolic in its approach to the protection of its citizens from murderous non-state actors operating under different aliases, there is no evidence to support Trump’s claims that Christians are particularly targeted for extermination.”

On Friday, Trump designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” under the US International Religious Freedom Act. The label is a suggestion that his administration has found that Nigeria has engaged in or tolerated “systematic, ongoing, (and) egregious violations of religious freedom.”

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has so far remained silent about Trump’s mention of potential military intervention but pushed back against the designation, stating in a social media post that “the characterization of Nigeria as religiously intolerant does not reflect our national reality, nor does it take into consideration the consistent and sincere efforts of the government to safeguard freedom of religion and beliefs for all Nigerians.”

Would US military action be likely to stop the killings?

Trump has not ruled out the possibility of sending US troops to Nigeria or launching airstrikes in the country, telling reporters on Sunday, “I envisage a lot of things.”

But analyst Obasi said that any unilateral US military operation against Islamist groups in Nigeria would not address the underlying factors driving instability there.

Such an intervention, he said, “without the involvement of Nigerian security forces, would be predictably unwelcome by many Nigerians and could further destabilize the country, aggravating its security situation.”

Instead, he urged the Nigerian government to “intensify efforts to end the mass killings of citizens,” regardless of their religious or other identities, and to address religious extremism, tensions over resources and banditry, “which are the underlying drivers of most of the mass killings.”

Bulama, the human rights advocate, believes the Nigerian government can address Trump’s criticism by “moving beyond defensiveness.”

“It should meet misinformation with data,” he suggested, adding that “this moment calls for candor, not posturing.”

“Constructive dialogue, not social-media outrage, will best serve Nigeria’s interests — and the cause of peace,” he advised.

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