The AI job cliff is getting closer

For recent college graduates, something big lurks beneath the surface.

It builds so slowly it’s almost imperceptible at first. Then, before you know it, people are telling stories about what it was like before artificial intelligence (AI) changed everything.

Three decades ago, college graduates might have sensed something similar about the emerging internet and its capacity to change the way information is shared and accessed. AI is different because we’re not talking about sharing knowledge or information. We’re talking about creating it with little or no human interaction.

In the public mind, AI’s impact has been limited to massive Wall Street investment, energy-intensive data centers and students looking for a little ChatGPT “assistance” on a history paper.

Just like the 1990s and the internet, job market disruption is coming. The World Economic Forum, in a Future of Jobs report, estimates that AI could replace as many as 92 million jobs by 2030 while adding 170 million positions. St. Louis Public Radio reports that AI was the second-leading cause of U.S. job loss in October.

This phase of disruption differs from the wave of offshoring in the 1990s and 2000s, which impacted low-skill workers without college degrees. AI will hit white-collar occupations once seen as invulnerable to technology-related job loss, including customer service representatives, data analysts, writers, accountants and computer coders.

The impact on the economy, and society, will be significant. Students will need to decide which training or degree programs promise the most job security. Governments will need to ensure that efficiency doesn’t come at the expense of long-term unemployment, which is politically destabilizing.

In short, we want to make sure AI is working for us and not the other way around. That’s the way Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Missouri, described it when he filed the AI-Related Jobs Impact Clarity Act. This legislation, co-sponsored with Democratic Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, requires companies and federal agencies to report AI-impacted layoffs to the Department of Labor.

Better tracking is important, especially with the current administration’s tendency to ignore unfavorable data. Bipartisan sponsorship shows that both parties can work together to address what is both a threat and an opportunity.

With any kind of technology, it’s impossible to put the genie back in the bottle. But policymakers, and the public, need to do more than trust the tech titans this time. With AI, they need know what we’re up against.