Forecast models are predicting a bomb cyclone off the East Coast this weekend. Here are the scenarios

By Andrew Freedman, Brandon Miller, CNN

(CNN) — Confidence is increasing that a powerful winter storm will form off the East Coast this weekend amid a bout of deadly cold, but predicting its track, intensity and who could see snow will take time to become clear.

As of Tuesday morning, forecast models agree a storm will form off the coast of the Carolinas early Saturday and then intensify rapidly enough to be classified as a bomb cyclone.

But models diverge on the exact track of this storm through the weekend, which will determine who sees snow and strong winds. Even a change of just 100 or 200 miles in the storm’s eventual track could be the difference in an epic snowfall for major East Coast cities or just a cold, breezy weekend.

The details will change, and we’ll be more confident later in the week, since the storm is still far out in time and confidence is low in the impacts.

But here are the scenarios to prepare for that are in play this far ahead of time.

Scenario 1: Coastal storm, Northeast largely spared

This scenario is most likely at this time given recent computer model projections.

The storm moves close enough to the coast to bring snow and other impacts to coastal areas, and then moves out to sea, sparing major East Coast cities.

Heavy snow, strong winds and coastal impacts such as beach erosion would be confined to areas right along the coast from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to Cape Cod, Massachusetts, as the storm turns into a bomb cyclone and moves northeastward through Sunday and into Monday.

Eastern North Carolina would be most heavily impacted in this scenario with heavy snow, strong winds and coastal impacts, beginning Saturday morning.

This storm track would largely spare the big cities of the Northeast’s Interstate-95 corridor from DC to Boston, though it would be a close call.

But, a shift in this track of just 100 to 200 miles to the west could make this another significant snowstorm.

Scenario 2: Blockbuster snow for all

Most computer models don’t favor this scenario, but there’s still enough uncertainty this far out in time to keep it on the table.

This storm track would bring heavy snow — potentially feet of it — and strong winds from the eastern Carolinas to the I-95 corridor.

The storm hugs the coast in this scenario, much closer than in the first one, as it rapidly intensifies.

The heavy snow and strong winds would significantly compound the impacts from last weekend’s storm. Many communities are still digging out from the ice and snow amid record-cold temperatures.

Scenario 3: A whole lot of nothing

Some computer model runs do show this playing out, with about the same likelihood as the second scenario.

In this final scenario, the storm moves straight out to sea after forming further out to sea offshore of the Carolinas.

This would keep its strongest winds and all of its snowfall offshore, sparing even the Carolinas from any significant impacts.

How this storm will differ from the last

This next winter storm will be a completely different beast from the sprawling one that just struck most areas east of the Rockies. Even though it will be a more intense and windy storm, the classic nor’easter will have a far smaller footprint along the East Coast.

A wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet is largely off the table for this event, given the storm’s track and the cold air already in place ahead of it. This is good news for those who saw damaging ice in the last event.

But blizzard conditions from its strong winds are in the mix, along with damaging waves and surf for much of the eastern coastline.

The bottom line: If you live from the Carolinas to the Northeast, pay attention to the latest forecast as this event gets closer because a significant storm is looking more likely.

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