Storm Tracker Team evaluates The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast accuracy
ST. JOSEPH, Mo. (News-Press NOW) -- For more than 230 years, The Old Farmer's Almanac has been a trusted source for planning weather-dependent activities such as farming, gardening and even travel.
But how accurate is it really?
Since its founding in 1792, The Old Farmer's Almanac has aimed to help farmers prepare for soil conditions, planting and harvesting.
The publication claims a high level of accuracy on its website, but meteorological studies tell a different story.
John Walsh, a University of Illinois professor, tested the almanac’s long-range predictions over a five-year period by comparing forecasted monthly temperatures and precipitation with actual data. He found that The Old Farmer’s Almanac was only 50.7% accurate on monthly temperatures and 51.9% accurate on precipitation forecasts. Which is about the same success rate as flipping a coin.
When comparing the predicted forecast for this summer in St. Joseph, residents can get an idea of how accurate the Almanac is.
Both the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Farmer’s Almanac use meteorological seasons for consistency. Meteorological summer runs from June 1 to Aug. 31.
From June 1 through Aug 26, the St. Joseph region has received 13.82 inches of rain, which is greater than the typical average of 12.47 inches which is over a 10% increase in precipitation. During the summer, Missouri also saw relief from drought conditions.
Despite the Almanac's prediction of a hot and dry summer with near-record-breaking temperatures, actual data tells a different story.
While the region did experience several days with high heat index values in the triple digits, average daily temperatures were below or near normal. No record-breaking heat days were observed.
Because of the unpredictability of global climate patterns, forecasting weather months or years in advance is extremely difficult.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac often publishes broad and non-specific forecasts, which leave little room for being proven wrong but also little value for practical planning.
Looking ahead, the Storm Tracker Weather Team has been monitoring below-average temperatures as we approach the start of meteorological fall on Sept. 1.
The Almanac predicts a warm and dry fall, followed by a mild and dry winter. However, given the almanac’s low accuracy and vague forecasts, it’s best to take those predictions with a grain of salt.
As we transition into a new season, your Storm Tracker Weather Team will continue to provide you with accurate and up-to-date forecasts, keeping you informed and weather-ready.
