A California plan is likely the Democrats’ best option in the redistricting wars

By Arit John, Manu Raju, CNN

(CNN) — As Texas Republicans move ahead with redistricting to protect or even expand the GOP’s slim majority in the US House, Democratic-run states, led by California, are pushing forward with their own efforts to draw new maps and add Democratic seats.

No Democratic states can shift the balance of power as dramatically and quickly as Texas, where Republican lawmakers can enact new maps giving them as many as five more GOP-controlled seats as soon as they establish a quorum, which state Democrats have denied them by fleeing the state.

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom has urged lawmakers to draw a new map to put before voters in a November special election. The map could flip five of Republicans’ nine seats in the state if voters approve it in a ballot initiative in November, sources told CNN.

Newsom said the plan would go forward only if Texas completes its redistricting effort.

“Things have changed. We’re reacting to that change,” the governor said at a news conference Monday. “They’ve triggered this response, and we’re not going to roll over.”

Texas’ mid-decade redistricting, undertaken at President Donald Trump’s behest, has brought together a Democratic Party beset by infighting and facing historically low approval ratings. Even as party leaders vow to fight back against Texas and other Republican states discussing redrawing their maps, they are limited in how much they can retaliate.

In several of the 15 states where Democrats hold the governorship and both chambers of the legislature, including New York, Washington and Colorado, maps are drawn by independent or bipartisan redistricting commissions, which are meant to thwart the sort of partisan gerrymandering Democrats are now seeking to advance.

In other blue states — including Maryland and Illinois — Democrats have already drawn aggressively gerrymandered maps. Republicans have pointed to Illinois’ map to argue they are within their rights to redraw lines in Texas.

Meanwhile, Republicans, who have trifectas in 23 states, have more ground to gain in a redistricting tug-of-war. GOP lawmakers in states such as Missouri and Florida have also expressed openness to new maps. Ohio, where lawmakers must redraw their maps under state redistricting laws, could also yield additional seats.

“There’s not a scenario where we don’t have more seats that we can go flip than they do,” a Republican close to the GOP redistricting process told CNN.

Those hurdles haven’t stopped Democratic leaders from pushing ahead. “I’ll look at our laws, I’ll find a path because we cannot take this lying down,” New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul said at a news conference Monday. “We can’t surrender when we have a fight for our lives.”

Here’s what Democratic leaders say they plan to do to respond to Texas’ redistricting push:

California

If voters approve Newsom’s plan, California would retain its independent Citizens Redistricting Commission and new maps would stay in place only through 2030.

Democrats hold 43 of the state’s 52 congressional districts. A new map could endanger California Republicans such as Rep. Kevin Kiley, who said he would introduce legislation Tuesday prohibiting mid-cycle redistricting.

“I don’t love what’s going on in Texas, and I don’t think it’s a good thing in any state,” Kiley said. “We have redistricting done once a decade for a reason. And that’s because it is a disruptive process, albeit a necessary one, because of population changes. And so I personally think that, you know, gerrymandering, wherever it occurs is not is not a good thing.”

Kiley recently spoke with House Speaker Mike Johnson to make his pitch for why he believes “the onus really lies on the speaker of the House” to put a stop to the redistricting fights breaking out across the country.

“I talked to the speaker publicly and privately about how it’s important for him to show leadership. I mean, he’s ultimately the leader of the House, and I think that it’s within his power to make an impact here,” Kiley, who also believes that Democrats have a role to play, told CNN.

Other Republicans whose seats might be targeted include Reps. David Valadao, Darrell Issa, Doug LaMalfa and Ken Calvert, according to the sources.

New York

In New York, where legislative maps are drawn by an independent commission, Democratic leaders introduced a proposed constitutional amendment last week that would allow lawmakers to redraw the state’s congressional map mid-decade if another state does so first.

At best, New York Democrats wouldn’t be able to change their maps until the 2028 election. The measure would need to pass in two consecutive legislative sessions and be approved by voters in 2027 before state lawmakers could redraw their congressional maps.

Illinois

Illinois’ maps are drawn by the legislature and approved by the governor, which means Democrats in the state have a clear path to redraw their maps. Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker has expressed openness to redistricting, saying lawmakers must put “everything on the table.”

But the state’s maps are already heavily tilted toward the party. Illinois’ 2021 redistricting effort shifted additional seats to Democrats, who now hold 14 of the state’s 17 congressional districts.

Maryland

Maryland House of Delegates Majority Leader David Moon has introduced legislation that would automatically redraw the state’s map if another state redraws their own outside of the once-a-decade custom.

But Maryland lawmakers face a similar dilemma as Illinois: While they don’t face the same procedural hurdles as states like New York, they don’t have much room to maneuver either. Democrats already control seven of the state’s eight districts.

It’s also not clear a new map would be approved. A Maryland judge threw out a Democrat-backed congressional map drawn in 2021 that would have threatened the state’s lone Republican lawmaker, Rep. Andy Harris. Harris won his 2024 reelection bid with nearly 60% of the vote.

The rest of the map

In New Jersey, where Democrats hold nine of 12 districts, they would need to change the state constitution to do off-cycle redistricting and disempower the state’s bipartisan commission.

In Colorado, the state legislature asked voters to approve the formation of an independent redistricting commission in 2018. The measure passed overwhelmingly. Additionally, the state Supreme Court ruled in 2003 that redistricting can happen only after the census.

And in Washington state, it would take Republican votes to reconvene the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission. It’s unlikely Democrats in the state, who control eight of 10 districts, would be able to turn one more seat blue.

“There’s literally no way to get the results they are talking about before the 2026 election,” Washington’s state Senate majority leader, Jamie Pedersen, told the Washington Standard. “We have already done our share to get Democrats in the House. There’s no juice to squeeze in the lemon here.”

CNN’s Annie Grayer and Fredreka Schouten contributed to this report.

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