Republican Matt Van Epps will win Tennessee special election, averting Democratic upset, CNN projects

By Eric Bradner, CNN

(CNN) — Republican Matt Van Epps will win the special US House election for Tennessee’s 7th District, CNN’s Decision Desk projects, preventing an upset but emboldening Democrats as they were on track to over-perform in a normally deep-red district.

His win over Democrat Aftyn Behn allows the GOP to retain the seat previously held by former Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July to take a private-sector job.

Leading up to Tuesday’s special election, Republicans had increasingly feared what would have been a disastrous loss in a district President Donald Trump won by 22 percentage points just 13 months ago. While Democrats notched big wins in the Virginia and New Jersey governors’ races last month, a flip in Republican-led Tennessee would have been a much more shocking victory.

Democrats including Behn argued that even a narrow loss would show momentum for their party’s focus on cost-of-living issues. Van Epps was on track to win the district by a much narrower margin than Trump and Green did last year.

“Tonight is not the final result of what we wanted, but it is the beginning of something so powerful in Tennessee and across the South,” Behn said at an election night rally.

Before the race was called Tuesday night, Behn told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, “This is a testament that Democrats can compete in high-turnout elections, because we’re seeing a hyper-high turnout right now in a special election.”

“It portends what will happen next year, when you have Republicans that are in more competitive seats, struggling with candidates that look a lot like me,” Behn added. “And for me, that’s a really exciting moment.”

Turnout in the race rivaled the 2022 midterm election and is more than half of what it was in 2024 – the largest share in a special election this year. That’s especially remarkable given this election was a one-off on the Tuesday after Thanksgiving.

That increase in turnout could account for why the Democratic over-performance Tuesday was below the 16-point average of other special elections this year. But Behn still improved from the Democrat’s 2024 margins in this district by double digits.

The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC, which ran ads backing Behn, argued the relatively close margins Tuesday night “should be a five-alarm fire for the GOP.”

“Tonight’s results make it clear: No House Republican’s reelection should be considered safe next November,” spokesperson CJ Warnke said in a statement.

Van Epps, a former Army helicopter pilot, previously served as the commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services. He won the Republican primary in October with endorsements from Trump and Gov. Bill Lee.

House Speaker Mike Johnson hit the campaign trail for Van Epps in the final stretch Monday, and Trump called into a tele-rally for the GOP nominee, where he said he wants to see Van Epps “do better than me” in the special election results.

“The Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him, including Millions of Dollars,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. “Another great night for the Republican Party!!!”

Van Epps tied himself closely to Trump in his victory speech, telling supporters that “running with Trump is how you win,” according to remarks shared by his campaign.

“We are grateful to the president for his unwavering support that charted this movement and catapulted us to victory,” he said. “President Trump was all-in with us. That made the difference. In Congress, I’ll be all-in with him.”

He also said cost-of-living concerns will be among his top priorities — a reflection of the broader focus on those issues in races across the map this fall, including the New York City mayoral race and the governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey.

“We’re on the side of hardworking Americans. I’ll fight to bring down prices, deliver bigger paychecks, and make life more affordable for Tennessee families,” Van Epps said.

Trump on Monday had called Behn a “radical left lunatic” who “doesn’t like country music — I would say for Nashville, that’s not so good.”

Behn, a Democratic state representative who first won her seat in a 2023 special election, rejected that characterization in an interview with CNN. She’s also noted her comments about not liking Nashville and country music were complaints about the city’s tourism industry affecting life for residents.

“I don’t think it’s radical to have spent my entire career organizing to make healthcare more affordable or groceries cheaper,” she said.

Meanwhile, Democratic leaders including former Vice President Al Gore and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joined a tele-rally for Behn on election eve on Monday.

Gore, a former Tennessee congressman and senator, said that “having had the privilege of representing Tennessee in years past, I want to tell you that I have never seen the political tides shift as far and as fast as we’re seeing them move in this election.”

The House GOP’s majority will grow to 220-213 after Van Epps is sworn in. Johnson has a tight margin that will shrink again when Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resigns in January, and with Democrats favored to win two more seats in special elections in Texas and New Jersey early next year, one created by the death of Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner and the other by New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s resignation.

David Urban, a Republican strategist and CNN senior political commentator, dismissed concerns that Behn’s showing would show Republicans faced trouble heading into the midterms.

“It was an off-year special election,” Urban said. “I think we’ll take a little lesson from it. But we got a big W.”

CNN’s David Wright and Kathryn Squyres contributed to this report.

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