Taiwan worries about US support wavering ahead of Trump’s meeting with Xi

By Kylie Atwood, Wayne Chang, Will Ripley, Zachary Cohen, CNN

(CNN) — Days before President Donald Trump departed for Asia where he will sit down with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday for their first in-person meeting of his second term, the president refused to count out the possibility of America’s position on Taiwan getting tangled in US-China trade talks.

“We’re going to be talking about a lot of things. I assume that’s going to be one of the things, but I’m not going to talk about that now,” Trump said when asked about reports that China may pressure the US to oppose Taiwan’s independence in exchange for a larger trade deal.

The refusal to definitively count out Taiwan becoming a pawn in trade talks between the world’s two largest economies comes as Trump has privately and publicly suggested he believes China will not invade the self-ruled island that Beijing claims it owns while he is in office – raising questions about how seriously the president will prioritize boosting Taiwan’s defense during his second term.

Trump again gave an evasive answer on Taiwan as he spoke with reporters on Air Force One en route to South Korea Wednesday for the Asia-Pacific Cooperation summit where he will sit down with Xi, saying he is not even sure the topic will be raised by the Chinese leader. A senior administration official expressed confidence that Trump would not be backed into stating opposition to Taiwan’s independence during the meeting, adding that the meeting will be focused on Xi “holding a gun to the head of the global economy” with its critical mineral export controls.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said over the weekend that no one in the administration is contemplating a trade deal that includes “favorable treatment” for walking away from Taiwan.

Some experts remain worried, however, that Trump might be willing to make concessions on Taiwan for a better trade deal, but former Trump administration officials argue that those concerns are over-blown.

“That idea of a grand bargain, of Trump selling out Taiwan, gets most of its oxygen from Chinese Communist Party trial balloons that are floated in US media, and from isolationists on the far left and the far right who believe in appeasement,” said Matt Pottinger, Chairman of the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Trump’s former deputy national security advisor. “Trump understands the strategic nature of Taiwan.”

Taiwan is also publicly downplaying concerns about the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, and with a senior Taiwan government official saying they are “cautiously optimistic” about the meeting and pointing to Rubio’s latest remarks as an encouraging sign.

Whenever leaders of the United States and China meet, Taiwan’s government is closely watching and calibrating its own strategy. Very little is typically said publicly given the precarious position Taipei finds itself in – wedged between two superpowers with vastly conflicting agendas and interests.

And Taiwan’s anxieties have amplified in Trump’s second term, multiple sources said.

Trump’s team is filled with more isolationist and far-right figures than the establishment Republican and Democratic officials who have traditionally shaped US foreign policy. And while Trump has prioritized securing a major trade deal with Beijing, his administration has paused some US military support to the island and complicated basic engagements such as the transit of Taiwan’s president through the US earlier this year, current and former US officials said.

“Some stakeholders in Taipei have found it really jarring to be in this position where they’re suddenly so unclear on whether the US president will support them,” said Henrietta Levin, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), adding they have found an “unwelcome surprise” in how challenging it has been to bolster the US-Taiwan relationship this year.

Trump went into his first term having taken a phone call from Taiwan’s president during the transition, which upended protocol because there are no formal diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan. His administration then accelerated the sale of weapons to the self-governing island and allowed the transit of Taiwan’s president though the US on multiple occasions – which is in line with past norms.

By contrast, Trump came into office for his second term after having repeatedly claimed in recent years that Taiwan “stole” the US chip business, which resonated uneasily in Taipei. He has been careful in public statements about Taiwan, his administration has halted the flow of some weapons from US stockpiles to the island and complicated the transit of the island’s president through the US.

The return of strategic ambiguity, or a downgrade of the relationship?

Some experts make the case that to date, Trump in his second term has acted in line with decades of US policy with a return to strategic ambiguity.

While it may be a hard shift after former President Joe Biden declared multiple times while he was in office that the US would militarily defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion, they say it’s not an abnormal approach.

“If you look at Obama, Bush before that, it’s always been a little bit of a hands-off approach, and trying to keep Taiwan at arm’s length and being very careful about any messages you sent to China. So, we are somewhat back to that new normal again,” said Dmitri Alperovitch, the chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, a foreign policy think tank.

But Taiwan is grappling with whether the current state of the relationship with the US is a short-term aberration as Trump focuses on a productive meeting with Xi, or more of a long-term reality.

It has led them to parse over the deeper meaning of every single engagement with the administration – or lack thereof.

Earlier this fall, there was a gathering on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly with Taiwan’s foreign minister at Le Bernardin, an upscale New York restaurant. Multiple senior US administration officials were expected to attend but they didn’t show up, according to a source who attended the gathering. Even though the administration signaled through intermediaries that the no-show was simply the unintended consequence of over-packed schedules, it left Taiwan feeling defeated, the source said.

The island is actively re-evaluating how they can move to bring the Trump administration to their side, sources said.

Facing pressure from both Washington and Beijing, President Lai Ching-te has pledged to raise defense spending sharply to 3.32% of GDP by 2026 and 5% by 2030.

But there are also actions that are being taken – or considered – that won’t attract headlines but could impact the overall relationship.

One option being considered is recalling their de facto ambassador to the US Alexander Yui in order to replace him with a diplomat who is more politically savvy, sources said. Some Trump administration officials have said that the current career diplomat doesn’t have the juice to effectively engage despite support from some close to the president, multiple sources said.

Taipei has also launched an unprecedented charm offensive aimed at conservative media figures and influencers aligned with Trump’s movement.

President Lai granted a rare interview to radio host Buck Sexton, praising Trump and even suggesting he would deserve the Nobel Peace Prize if he could persuade China to renounce the use of force against Taiwan.

Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim spoke with YouTuber Shawn Ryan, while Taiwan’s de facto ambassador appeared on Steve Bannon’s podcast and hosted Ryan at Twin Oaks, the historic ambassadorial residence in Washington, DC.

Such outreach marks a sharp departure from Taipei’s conventional diplomatic approach, underscoring its effort to engage directly with the Trump-aligned ecosystem currently shaping US foreign policy discourse.

Taipei is also trying to offset its US trade deficit by purchasing 6 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Alaska, a move officials describe as both an energy-security measure and a goodwill gesture toward Washington while they are still working on a trade deal between the two sides.

Still, Taiwan is not willing to concede to the US across the board. The island vowed to resist pressure from Washington to shift half of its chip production capacity to the United States, throwing down the gauntlet to the Trump administration just earlier this month. The subject is expected to continue as an active piece of the ongoing trade talks between the US and Taiwan.

Making Taiwan a porcupine ‘without giving Beijing the middle finger’

Chinese leader Xi Jinping views Taiwan’s “reunification” with the mainland as a core requirement for the sweeping vision of a “national rejuvenation” China aims to achieve by mid-century.

Senior Communist Party officials recently drew up their upcoming five-year plan, which analysts expect will see Beijing prioritize greater economic integration with Taiwan as part of its push for “peaceful reunification.” State media on Monday released a sweeping commentary laying out the many economic carrots it said would be available to Taiwan’s people “after reunification.”

China’s ruling Communist Party claims the self-governing island democracy as its own, despite never having controlled it, and has not ruled out using force to take control of the island.

Meanwhile, US officials have said that Xi has ordered the country’s military to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027.

The Trump administration plans to adopt a policy on Taiwan with the goal of making the island a “porcupine” by investing strategically in precision and smaller weapons built for asymmetric warfare to deter Chinese aggression or make an invasion so costly and painful that costs would outweigh benefits, two sources briefed on the policy discussions said. US officials also want to get Taiwan to that place “without giving Beijing the middle finger,” the sources explained.

The Trump administration refused to green-light the transfer of US weapons stocks to Taiwan earlier this year, under a process known as Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), sources said. The move led to questions about the US military’s commitment to Taiwan. But the move was not meant to signal a complete abdication of US support, sources said. While the administration does not want Taiwan pulling from US weapons stocks — with one administration official pointing out that most of the stockpiled weapons that the US can give to Taiwan would be ineffective in a fight against China — there are no plans to halt sales of weapons which would be purchased by Taiwan, administration officials said.

The Trump administration has told Taiwan to put in more orders for military equipment, and they are still waiting on those new orders, the senior administration official said. This private push comes as the administration has made clear that it views the economically prosperous island through the same lens that it views Europe – that it must invest more towards its own defense.

Still, speed needs to be addressed. Taipei is waiting on a backlog of more than $20 billion in undelivered US military equipment, with production times in the US delayed in part because of the war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the delayed National Defense Strategy from the Pentagon and internal disagreement over the extent to which the administration plans to prioritize sending military resources to the Western Hemisphere and Europe versus the Pacific is raising questions about the military focus and resources that will actually be put towards Taiwan.

Dictating the flow of US arms to allies and partners would typically be the job of the defense secretary but the Pentagon has tried to make those calls in recent months with policy memos that have at times been slapped down by Trump directly, sources pointed out.

Trump has publicly claimed in recent weeks that Xi won’t invade Taiwan because of US military strength.

“China doesn’t want to do that. First of all, United States is the strongest military power in the world by far, it’s not even close,” Trump said earlier this month. “Nobody’s going to mess with that and I don’t see that at all with President Xi.”

While US officials claim Taiwan must act more quickly to shore up its own defenses, there are concerns on the island that Trump’s personal conviction that Xi will not invade while he is in office could impede the US from effectively boosting their military capabilities in the coming years.

“They are concerned about that, so if there’s no invasion until 2029, but all the time between now and then is wasted, both on the US side and the Taiwanese side, that will set us up for a disaster in 2029 or 2030,” Alperovitch said.

CNN’s Simone McCarthy contributed reporting.

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