In Maine, a brewery owner and an oyster farmer hope to upend the establishment and oust Susan Collins from the Senate

By Arit John, CNN

(CNN) — The eclectic Democratic field in Maine seeking to end the nearly 30-year run of Republican Sen. Susan Collins includes a brewery owner, an oyster farmer and a former congressional staffer who was in grade school when the senator was first elected.

Any chance Democrats have of defying expectations and winning control of the US Senate next year hinges on Maine, where the question hanging over the race is whether two-term Gov. Janet Mills will shake up the contest full of political newcomers with an entrance this fall.

Mills, who is term-limited, has said she is “seriously considering” running for Senate and signaled she intends to make a decision by November. Collins has said she plans to run but hasn’t officially launched her campaign. The incumbent didn’t announce her 2020 re-election bid until December 2019.

Maine’s Democratic Senate primary could be a test case for just how strong the party’s desire for a new generation of leaders really is in the wake of former President Joe Biden’s late exit from the 2024 campaign. A general election race between Mills and Collins would pit two longtime leaders with track records of winning tough contests against each other. It would also stand in stark contrast to the generational change many in the Democratic Party are seeking.

Mills, 77, would be the oldest freshman senator in US history if she ran and won the race. Collins, 72, was first elected in 1996. Several of the candidates vying for the seat are decades younger than the two, but also lack their name ID and history of electoral success.

More than half a dozen Democrats have entered the race to unseat Collins, including Dan Kleban, the co-founder of Maine Beer Company; Graham Platner, a Marine veteran and oyster farmer; and Jordan Wood, who served as a chief of staff to former Rep. Katie Porter.

Other candidates could still enter the race, especially if Mills stays out.

“If she decides not to run, I would strongly consider whether or not Maine is ready for a new voice,” Maine House Speaker Ryan Fecteau told CNN in an email, while praising Mills’ “track record of public service” and saying it “would make her a great choice” to be the state’s next senator.

A focus on affordability

Like many Democrats running for office in the wake of the party’s 2024 presidential loss, the field has focused their messaging on affordability, arguing Collins can’t relate to the financial challenges Mainers are going through today. They’ve pointed to their personal backstories – either past financial struggles or current work as small business owners – to pitch themselves as best equipped to connect with voters worried about high costs.

“These crises around affordability, the cost of living, they have not just continued in these 30 years that she has been our senator,” said Wood, a 35-year-old who noted he was in second grade when Collins was first elected. “They have only gotten worse.”

Kleban, 48, said he started Maine Beer Company with his brother after he was laid off during the Great Recession. The pair seeded the company cashing out his wife’s 401(k).

“I can understand and feel why people are so angry, because they don’t feel like politicians have their back,” he said. “I don’t think Susan Collins has Mainers’ backs anymore.”

Platner, who rallied with independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders on Labor Day, has appealed to the party’s more progressive wing. The 40-year-old supports Medicare for All and has railed against oligarchy in America and the influence of billionaires in US politics.

At the same time, he said he “owns a lot of guns” and “drinks a lot of beer” with friends who support President Donald Trump.

“The fact that advocating for people to have health care is going to pigeonhole you into some kind of weird, progressive bucket, I find to be pretty laughable,” he said.

Kleban has also rejected any labelling, and referred to himself as a pragmatic, “get sh*t done kind of Democrat” in the vein of Sens. John Hickenlooper of Colorado and Mark Kelly of Arizona.

The electability factor

With Collins being a top target for Democrats – she is the only Republican senator in a state won by Kamala Harris last November – electability may end up being as much of a factor in the primary as ideology.

“It’s been a long time since there was a Democratic United States Senator from Maine, and what [voters] want to know is who can win,” said Emily Cain, a former Maine Democratic House Minority Leader. “I think any other factor plays second fiddle to that.”

Maine Democrats have not elected one of their own to the Senate in more than 30 years. (Sen. Angus King caucuses with Democrats but is an independent.)

The party saw an opportunity to unseat Collins in 2020 by channeling anger over her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Millions poured into a fund to support an eventual challenger to Collins, and the field quickly rallied around former Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon.

Collins went on to win by nearly nine points even as Biden carried the state by a similar margin.

Democrats argue that, this time around, Collins is uniquely vulnerable. This will be the first time she’s on the ballot since Kavanaugh joined with the court’s majority to overturn federal abortion protections. They also argue that voters have grown weary of Collins’ reputation as a middle-of-the-road senator who is frequently concerned with Trump administration policies.

“Mainers across the political divide no longer buy the bullsh*t,” Platner said. “They no longer buy the story that she’s this kind of moderate who’s somehow threading these special needles.”

Republicans, however, are bullish on Collins’ odds, especially after a possible drawn-out Democratic primary. Collins can point to her seniority – she is chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee – and her strong fundraising. She had nearly $5.3 million cash on hand as of June 30, according to her most recent FEC report.

“Susan Collins has spent her career putting Mainers first, crafting policy to support small businesses and protect Social Security,” National Republican Senatorial Committee regional press secretary Samantha Cantrell said in a statement to CNN. “While Democrats exhaust themselves in an increasingly messy primary, Susan Collins will be fighting for commonsense policies that improve the lives of workers and families.”

No clear path for Mills

Should Mills decide to seek the Senate seat, it appears she will not enjoy a clear path to the Democratic nomination. Wood and Platner have said they would not step aside if the governor enters the race.

If the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer “knew how to win these races up here in Maine, then I wouldn’t be here doing this,” Platner said.

Kleban has left the door open, saying he will assess whether he has a path forward if Mills does run.

“I think she’s been a great governor. I don’t know what she’s going to do, but I’m in this campaign to win it,” he said. “I’m not going to pigeonhole myself into doing one thing or the other.”

One Democratic strategist involved in Senate races who requested anonymity to speak candidly about the dynamics in Maine, said Mills would be a “formidable” opponent given her name ID, money and her track record of standing up to Trump on issues, including over transgender athletes. But while there may be a political strategy behind getting in late, the two-term governor has likely lost any chance of having the field to herself, the person said.

“I think, quite frankly, she’s making it a little bit harder on herself by delaying it because people, myself included, want to see a fighter and want someone who recognizes the urgency of the moment,” the strategist told CNN. “Putting it off doesn’t make me feel as if you have that fight in you.”

Mills is unlikely to be rushed. Cain, who served with Mills in the state legislature, pointed to the governor’s long track record of historic wins in the state: she was the first woman to be elected as a district attorney in New England and the state’s first female governor.

She was also elected by her colleagues in the legislature to serve as Maine’s first female attorney general. If she ran and won next November, she would be the first Democratic woman elected to the Senate from Maine.

“Janet has nothing to prove to anybody about what she’s ready to do or not,” Cain said. “Janet is going to take her own time and make her decision, and when she’s ready, we’ll know it.”

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