4 races to watch in 2025

By Terence Burlij, CNN

(CNN) — Elections this November will serve as a measure of the mood of voters 10 months into President Donald Trump’s second term as both parties prepare for next year’s crucial midterm contests.

The electoral tests of partisan enthusiasm come as both parties face challenges: Democrats find themselves balancing frustration with their own party leaders and disapproval of the president’s actions while Republicans will try to turn out Trump voters, who are more motivated to show up when the president is on the ballot.

And while the presidential election is still more than three years away, the early jockeying among potential contenders has already begun, making these off-year races opportunities for White House hopefuls to elevate their profiles in support of candidates and initiatives on the ballot.

While there are unique dynamics at play in each of these contests, the results – taken together – will offer the first wide-ranging assessment from voters in advance of more consequential elections that follow in 2026 and 2028.

California redistricting

California is a late addition to this list, with lawmakers last month approving a plan by Gov. Gavin Newsom to put new congressional maps before voters aimed at gaining five additional US House seats for Democrats in next year’s midterm elections. The move came in response to an effort by Republicans to redraw the maps in Texas to help the GOP pick up five more seats, part of an escalating redistricting fight across the country.

It’s a political gamble by Newsom, with sequoia-sized implications for both the balance of power in the US House for the remaining two years of Trump’s presidency and for the California governor’s own presidential ambitions. The compressed campaign comes 15 years after Californians voted to strip lawmakers of their redistricting powers, shifting that authority to an independent commission.

Proponents of the new maps will need to persuade voters to temporarily jettison that process while also overcoming a splintered coalition of opponents that includes former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who has pledged to raise funds to defeat the effort. Those on both sides of the overhaul expect spending to ultimately exceed nine figures, a sign of the high stakes attached to the outcome.

Trump is at the core of Newsom’s appeal to voters to support the amendment, known as Proposition 50, framing it as a chance for the state to serve as rebuttal to the president’s push in Texas and a rebuke by denying him a GOP-controlled House for the final two years of his term. Republicans are wary of Trump’s potential role in the campaign, given the president’s low approval numbers in the deep-blue state. Instead, they are seeking to make Newsom the central figure of the contest, presenting the effort as being fueled by the governor’s future ambitions beyond the Golden State.

New York City mayor

Zohran Mamdani’s stunning Democratic primary win reshaped the mayoral race in America’s largest city. The 33-year-old state assembly member must now translate that success in a general election environment with rivals offering themselves up as alternatives to the democratic socialist and his progressive agenda.

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo remains Mamdani’s top rival, deciding to proceed with an independent bid after losing the June primary by 12 points. Cuomo has retooled his approach following that defeat but has kept a steady focus on Mamdani’s lack of experience and liberal policy proposals.

Incumbent mayor Eric Adams is also running as an independent after passing on a Democratic primary run amid questions about his cooperation with the Trump administration. His candidacy has also been surrounded by a cloud of corruption scandals involving close allies and associates. Republican Curtis Sliwa, who placed a distant second to Adams four years ago, is a potential wildcard based on what share of the vote he draws.

While he enters the final two months of the election as the frontrunner, Mamdani is still working to coalesce support among Democrats – top party leaders including Gov. Kathy Hochul, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have yet to formally endorse him. At the same time, Mamdani has sought to soften some of his more controversial stances and rhetoric as he seeks to build support outside the party’s more progressive base.

Given the sharp Democratic lean of New York City, the results in November may be of limited utility when it comes to understanding the direction of the country heading into the midterms. The outcome, however, could offer a clear signal about the direction of the Democratic Party, with the possible election of Mamdani giving democratic socialists perhaps their most significant victory to date.

Virginia governor

Regardless of the outcome in November, Virginia is set to make history by electing the commonwealth’s first female governor.

The race features a matchup between former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee, and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Spanberger has proven over the years to be a difficult candidate for Republicans to run against given her profile as a political moderate and national security background as a former CIA officer. Earle-Sears offers a compelling biography of her own – a Jamaican immigrant, Marine Corps veteran and first woman of color elected statewide in Virginia.

Spanberger has made affordability – not Trump – a cornerstone of her candidacy, though she has made a point to highlight the impact of the administration’s DOGE cuts on Virginia’s economy given the large number of federal workers who reside in the state. Earle-Sears has leaned more into her ties to outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin rather than the president, while targeting her criticism of Spanberger around transgender policies – an echo of the Trump campaign’s messaging in the closing stretch of the 2024 election.

Money is a major advantage for Spanberger, who has significantly outraised her rival and reserved $10 million in ad time for the fall campaign compared to about $33,000 for Earle-Sears, according to data from AdImpact.

While Virginia has become more favorable for Democrats in recent decades, Youngkin’s success in 2021 and Trump’s narrower margin of defeat last November compared to his 2020 run has given Republicans some renewed hope of the state’s level of competitiveness.

Historical trends, however, are not on the side of Republicans this year. Except for Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s 2013 win, Virginia voters have picked governors from the party that lost the White House the previous year going back 12 elections.

One other dynamic to keep an eye on: The margin in this year’s race for governor could impact other contests across the commonwealth, with two other statewide races for lieutenant governor and attorney general as well as all 100 seats in the House of Delegates on the ballot. Some Republicans see Jason Miyares, the incumbent attorney general, as the party’s strongest statewide candidate who has the potential to outperform the top of the ticket.

New Jersey governor

A few hundred miles up I-95 is another race for governor in a state where Trump made inroads last November but with a track record of boosting the party not in control of the White House.

The contest for New Jersey governor pits Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot first elected as part of the 2018 wave in Trump’s first term, against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, the party’s 2021 nominee and former member of the state assembly.

New Jersey saw a dramatic swing toward Trump in 2024, with the president only losing the state by roughly six points after a nearly 16-point defeat four years earlier. In his 2021 run for governor, Ciattarelli came within about three points of unseating incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who is term limited.

The political environment with Trump back in the White House is different terrain for Ciattarelli than his previous election that came 10 months into Joe Biden’s term when approval of the Democrat’s job performance had declined. The GOP nominee has fully embraced Trump in his latest campaign after keeping him more at a distance four years ago.

Sherrill, like Spanberger in Virginia, gives Democrats a nominee with a more moderate profile and national security credentials, who like her former House colleague has also sought to highlight cost-of-living concerns in her campaign. She has zeroed in on Ciattarelli’s support for Trump’s tariff and tax policies, making the case they hurt the bottom lines of New Jersey voters.

Ciattarelli has blamed Democratic policies for rising utility costs and vowed to defend parental rights while also attempting to link Sherrill to Mamdani despite her cautious approach when it comes to the New York mayoral nominee.

Neither candidate currently has any fall ad reservations, according to AdImpact, but a pro-Sherrill outside group is set to spend more than $17 million between Labor Day and Election Day.

New Jersey, like Virginia, has a well-established “rebound effect” with gubernatorial contests. Since 1989 – except for Murphy’s reelection four years ago – the candidate from the party that lost the previous presidential election has gone on to win the race for governor in the Garden State. At the same time, no party has held the governor’s office in New Jersey for more than two consecutive terms in the last 50 years, which would make a Sherrill win this November historic.

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