Tuesday’s races were a quiet rebuke of Trump for many voters, AP Voter Poll finds
By LINLEY SANDERS, JOSH BOAK, and AMELIA THOMSON-DEVEAUX
Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump wasn’t on the ballot in Tuesday’s elections, but many voters in key races made their choice in opposition to him or considered him to be irrelevant, according to the AP Voter Poll.
It was hardly an endorsement of his nearly 10 months back in the White House.
That theme played out in the governor races in New Jersey and Virginia, the mayoral contest in New York City and a state proposition to redraw congressional districts in California.
The AP Voter Poll, which surveyed more than 17,000 voters in those places, found that most voters disapproved of Trump’s performance as president, and many thought his aggressive approach to immigration had “gone too far.” Republicans and those who lean toward the Republican Party were more likely to say Trump wasn’t a factor for their vote, even though most approve of his job performance.
Few cast a vote to support Trump, while more wanted to oppose him
Most presidents fare poorly in the off-cycle elections that come a year after their White House wins, and Trump fit solidly into that pattern as Democrats boasted victories in Tuesday’s key races.
In both Virginia and New Jersey, slightly fewer than half of voters said Trump was “not a factor” in their respective votes for governor. Beside some social media posts and tele-rallies Monday night, Trump did little to help Republican candidates in those states.
About 6 in 10 voters in New York City’s mayoral race said Trump did not play a role in their decision. That’s despite his threat to withdraw federal funding if Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani won, and his social media endorsement of Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor. New York City voters picked Mamdani to be their next mayor, setting up a possible showdown with the Trump administration.
For those who did identify Trump as a factor, it was to his disadvantage.
Roughly 4 in 10 voters in New Jersey and Virginia said they were casting ballots to oppose Trump. Fewer said they were voting to show their support for the Republican president.
Trump weighed more heavily in the minds of California voters, who were voting on a proposition to determine whether to redistrict the state’s congressional seats in favor of Democrats. The whole effort is designed to rebut Trump’s efforts to redraw congressional districts in Republican states with the specific goal of preserving the GOP House majority in next year’s midterm races.
Only about 4 in 10 California voters said Trump did not factor into their decision. But about half said they were voting to object to Trump. Roughly 1 in 10 California voters said they were voting with support for him.
Voters largely disapproved of Trump, and many cast ballots accordingly
Many voters disapprove of how Trump has performed since returning to the White House in January. That could be a problem for Republican candidates, as Trump has made loyalty to him a must for GOP candidates.
Only about 4 in 10 voters across Virginia and New Jersey approve of how the president is handling his job. Approval was even lower in the Democratic strongholds of California and New York City, where close to two-thirds of voters disapprove of his leadership so far.
Not surprisingly, the voters who were likeliest to disapprove of him were more likely to say they were signaling their dislike of him when casting a ballot. Meanwhile, voters who like Trump’s job performance were more likely to say the president wasn’t a factor in their choice.
Most Republican voters in Virginia and New Jersey approved of Trump’s performance as president, but that didn’t mean they saw him as a major motivator. About 6 in 10 Republicans in both states said Trump wasn’t a factor in their vote.
Many voters were unhappy with Trump’s immigration approach
In 2024, Trump capitalized on voters’ concerns about border crossings by immigrants without legal status.
This year, immigration fell far behind economic issues for voters when they were asked to think about what’s the most important issue facing their state or city. It wasn’t a top concern for voters in any of the four states where the AP Voter Poll was conducted. The survey also found that many voters were unhappy with Trump’s aggressive approach on deportations and arrests of immigrants believed to be in the country illegally.
Voters in California, New Jersey, New York City and Virginia were more likely to say that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement had “gone too far” than “been about right” or “not gone far enough.”
But voters in Virginia and New Jersey were about evenly split on whether their next governor should cooperate with the Trump administration on immigration enforcement.
Voters in New York City and California were more definitively opposed. About 6 in 10 voters in each place said their leaders should not be cooperating with the White House on immigration enforcement.
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The 2025 AP Voter Poll, conducted by SSRS from Oct. 22 – Nov. 4, includes representative samples of registered voters in California (4,490), New Jersey (4,244), New York City (4,304) and Virginia (4,215). The AP Voter Poll combines data collected from validated registered voters online and by telephone, with data collected in-person from election day voters at approximately 30 precincts per state or city, excluding California. Respondents can complete the poll in English or Spanish. The overall margin of sampling error for voters, accounting for design effect, is plus or minus 2.0 percentage points in California, 2.1 percentage points in New Jersey, 2.2 percentage points in New York City, and 2.1 percentage points in Virginia.
