AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Virginia’s special congressional election
By ROBERT YOON
Associated Press
FAIRFAX, Va. (AP) — Voters in the northern Virginia suburbs of Washington will choose a replacement Tuesday for the late Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly, who died in May after battling cancer.
Control of the U.S. House doesn’t hang in the balance in the special congressional election, but it could narrow the Republican majority in the closely divided chamber as members return from the August recess.
Democrat James Walkinshaw is facing Republican Stewart Whitson. Walkinshaw is a member of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors and previously served as Connolly’s chief of staff. Whitson is a former FBI special agent and Army veteran who oversees federal affairs for a conservative think tank. The two won their parties’ nominations in party-run primaries held in late June.
The seat is among three Democratic vacancies that have lowered the number of votes Republicans need to pass President Donald Trump’s top legislative priorities in the House, where the GOP holds a slim 219-212 majority. The vacancies may have played a decisive role in May, when the president’s big tax breaks and spending cuts bill passed the House by one vote, 215-214. A fourth House vacancy opened up in July, when Tennessee Republican Mark Green stepped down to accept a private-sector position.
Walkinshaw has held a financial advantage throughout the abbreviated campaign, with about $1.1 million raised in contributions, compared with about $225,000 for Whitson. Walkinshaw’s campaign had about $139,000 in the bank as of Aug. 20, more than double Whitson’s $57,000.
Virginia’s 11th Congressional District is located just outside Washington and includes the City of Fairfax and most of Fairfax County. Although not as deep blue as the neighboring 8th District, which includes Alexandria and Arlington, the 11th District is still reliable territory for Democratic candidates. Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried the district with 65% of the vote in 2024. Connolly received about 67% of the vote in his final reelection bid. Trump received 40% or more of the vote in only nine of the district’s 183 precincts.
Fairfax County is the dominant player in district elections. It comprised about 97% of the vote in the 2024 general election, compared with only 3% for the City of Fairfax.
Connolly was elected to nine terms and served for more than 15 years. He succeeded Republican Tom Davis, who held a version of this seat for 14 years.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Virginia does not conduct automatic recounts. Candidates may request and pay for recounts if the margin between the top two candidates is 1 percentage point or less. The government will pay for the recount if the margin is less than 0.5 percentage points or the final outcome has changed. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
Special election day
The special election in Virginia’s 11th Congressional District will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.
What’s on the ballot?
The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare a winner in the special congressional election in the 11th District. There are no other contests on the ballot, and Walkinshaw and Whitson are the only candidates listed.
Who gets to vote?
Any voter registered in the 11th Congressional District may participate in the special election.
What do turnout and advance vote look like?
As of Sept. 1, there were nearly 568,000 registered voters in Virginia’s 11th Congressional District. Voters in Virginia do not register by party.
Turnout in the district was 52% of registered voters in the 2022 midterm election and 71% in the 2024 general election. Ballots cast before Election Day made up about 34% of total votes in 2022 and about 57% in 2024.
As of Wednesday, more than 48,000 ballots had been cast before Election Day, about 52% by mail and the rest in person at early voting locations.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results from the 11th District at 7:38 p.m. ET, or 38 minutes after polls closed. Tabulation ended for the night at 12:36 a.m. ET with about 95% of total votes counted.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 420 days until the 2026 midterm elections.
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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2025 election at https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2025/.
