Bomb cyclone to bring major winter storm to the Southeast. Northeast could see a glancing blow or a lot of snow

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By CNN Meteorologist Briana Waxman

(CNN) — A rapidly strengthening storm is expected to develop off the Southeast coast this weekend amid a deadly cold outbreak, bringing a high likelihood of snow and strong winds to parts of the Southeast and southern Virginia. Farther north, the storm’s path is a close shave for the Northeast, but southeast New England is in the bull’s-eye of the region’s biggest threats right now.

More than 20 million people are under winter storm watches from eastern Georgia into the Carolinas and southern Virginia, including Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, and Norfolk, Virginia. Locations along the coast in these areas could see blizzard conditions and significant coastal flooding.

Computer forecast models are increasingly aligned on a low-pressure system forming off the Carolinas early Saturday and intensifying rapidly into a bomb cyclone. How closely the storm hugs the coast as it moves north through the weekend will determine how much snow, if any, falls across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Here’s what to expect:

Southeast, southern Virginia: heavy snow, punishing winds

Forecast confidence is highest across parts of the Southeast, including eastern Georgia, the Carolinas and southern Virginia, where accumulating snow and strong winds will likely begin Friday night into Saturday.

Models agree that the storm will track close enough to bring snow to this region even with modest shifts in its path. While exact snowfall total predictions are still being refined, the signal for accumulation is strong enough to raise concerns about hazardous travel, especially with cold air already firmly in place.

Blizzard conditions could could occur in coastal parts of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina as winds gust up to 60 mph. Snow and strong winds must combine to bring visibility dangerously low for several hours for a storm to officially be a blizzard.

The highest snow totals are expected closer to the coast in North Carolina and Virginia, where cities like Raleigh, North Carolina, and Norfolk, Virginia, could receive between 6 and 12 inches of snow. Lighter totals are expected inland, and some flakes could fly as far west as Atlanta, Knoxville, Tennessee, and Roanoke, Virginia.

Even outside of official blizzard conditions, strong winds could further worsen conditions, leading to blowing snow and the potential for scattered power outages if heavier snow bands develop. Snow is expected to continue into Sunday morning, but will taper off from west to east during the day.

Northeast: close shave, but New England has biggest threat

Farther north into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, forecast confidence drops sharply, with the storm’s eventual track playing a critical role in determining impacts.

As of early Thursday, areas closer to the coast and farther north into New England appear to have the best chance of seeing some accumulating snow, but how much is still unclear. A shift of just 100 to 200 miles from the current forecast could dramatically change outcomes, particularly for cities along the Interstate-95 corridor.

A track that hugs the coast could bring a significant snowstorm with damaging winds, but that worst-case scenario seems unlikely to play out at this time. A slightly farther offshore track would result in a glancing blow, delivering light snow or mainly windy conditions for cities such as Washington, DC, Philadelphia and New York City.

Boston has a better chance of seeing snow given its position farther east, closer to the storm’s likely path.

Coastal impacts: beach erosion, high surf, coastal flooding likely

Even in areas that miss out on snow, coastal impacts remain a serious concern along parts of the East Coast as the storm rapidly intensifies offshore.

According to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, “wind gusts near hurricane-force will coincide with astronomical high tides, producing moderate to locally significant coastal flooding.”

Strong winds, high surf and beach erosion are possible from the Southeast coast into parts of the Northeast, particularly if the storm strengthens quickly while tracking closer to shore. Moderate to significant coastal flooding is possible, especially in northeast North Carolina, the Virginia Tidewater region and southeast New England.

Any heavy snow and strong winds would compound impacts from last weekend’s deadly winter storm, as many communities are still working to restore power and dig out amid persistently cold conditions.

The bottom line: If you live from the Carolinas to the Northeast, pay close attention to the latest forecast and make preparations now.

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CNN Meteorologist Chris Dolce contributed to this report.