As Iran faces unrest, Israel waits quietly for Trump’s next move

By Tal Shalev, CNN

(CNN) — As waves of protests have tested the Iranian regime’s ability to manage dissent, the country with arguably the most to gain has been waiting in the wings, reluctant to intervene even when its regional adversary is at its most vulnerable point in years.

After months of publicly threatening Iran, Israel has gone quiet, waiting to see how the protest movement develops and giving US President Donald Trump space to make his own decision on whether to take action.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has held several security consultations on the situation in Iran in recent days, according to a source familiar with the matter. But the longtime leader, who launched a surprise attack on Iran last summer, has instructed his ministers to avoid public statements about the country.

At the beginning of the protests, Science Minister Gila Gamliel posted a selfie on X wearing a “Make Iran Great Again” cap, tagging Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last monarch, as well as a video message supporting the protesters. The Prime Minister’s Office has advised the ministers to remain silent at least twice since, according to the source.

‘Keep quiet’

At the weekly government meeting on Sunday, Netanyahu said only that Israel was “closely monitoring” events in Iran and supported the protesters’ “struggle for freedom.” There was no threat directed at Tehran or at the country’s supreme leader.

“The overall instruction is to keep quiet,” an Israeli official told CNN. “The understanding is that if we touch, we will only interfere.”

The protests began two weeks ago over rampant inflation, but they soon transformed into widespread demonstrations against the Iranian regime, spreading to more than 180 cities and towns across the country. The government has tried to divert attention away from the root causes of the protests, accusing the US and Israel of fomenting the unrest.

For Israel to interfere now risks giving Tehran exactly what it needs most: the ability to deflect blame away from ongoing domestic problems and turn attention to a foreign adversary.

“From Israel’s viewpoint, this is not the right time to intervene,” a former senior Israeli security official told CNN. “There’s no reason to disrupt the internal weakening of the regime or to give it a pretext to rally domestic support.”

Yet, even as the politicians maintain their public silence, the unfolding drama in Iran’s streets has dominated Israeli news coverage for the past two weeks, renewing anxieties about potential escalation, shaped by the memories of Iranian ballistic missile attacks during the 12-day war in June.

Municipalities in central Israel have informed citizens that shelters remain open as a precaution, while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) moved to downplay concerns about an imminent attack. “In recent days, many rumors have been circulating in light of the situation in Iran,” IDF spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin wrote on X on Monday, reiterating the military’s position. “The protests in Iran are an internal matter. We continue to hold ongoing situation assessments and will issue updates if there are any changes.”

‘Good luck to the Iranian people’

The mayor of Ramat Gan, a city in central Israel, addressed public uncertainty on Facebook. “This time the situation depends less on us and more on what happens in Iran – or in President Trump’s mind,” Mayor Carmel Shama wrote. “Good luck to the Iranian people. Their success in gaining freedom is also our success.”

The protests in Iran have however complicated some of Israel’s military planning. The Netanyahu government has become increasingly concerned about Iran’s ballistic missile activity, as well as what it believes is Tehran’s rearming of Hezbollah in Lebanon. According to Israeli sources, operations that had been under discussion to counter these are now under review. Israel is looking at the situation from a “defensive/responsive approach,” one of the Israeli officials who spoke to CNN said.

“Any military operation could now give Tehran an excuse to divert attention from the unrest at home, and increase the risk of miscalculation,” the former security official told CNN.

Sima Shine, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), and former head of the Research & Evaluation Division at the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, said the protests have effectively put any Israeli plans to attack Iran again “on hold.” From the moment the US voiced its support for the protests, Shine said, “it’s only natural for Israel to prefer that Washington take the lead. There is little reason for Israel to intervene while President Trump himself is assessing options and planning his next move.”

However, if Trump decides on military action in Iran, Shine said, “things could change – mainly in a scenario where the Iranians decide to retaliate against Israel, as they have threatened to do in response to possible American action.”

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