In evolving Latin America, US-Venezuela discord remains a constant

By Mauricio Torres, Gonzalo Zegarra, Germán Padinger, Jhasua Razo, CNN

(CNN) — In a perpetually changing Latin America, there was only one certainty in the last 25 years: a socialist and oil-rich Venezuela and its constant confrontation with the United States.

This year, tensions reached unprecedented levels following a US military buildup in the Caribbean, attacks on boats allegedly carrying drugs that Washington linked to Caracas, and President Donald Trump’s maximum-pressure campaign on his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolás Maduro, and on oil, the country’s lifeline.

How did we get here?

The following is a deep look at contemporary Venezuela, its history, its riches, its alliances and its delicate internal balance of power amid growing tensions with the US.

General information

Official name: Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela

Geography: Venezuela has a land area of 912,050 square kilometers (352,144 square miles), according to the World Bank. It is bordered to the north by the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, to the west by Colombia, to the south by Brazil and to the east by Guyana.

Population: At the end of 2023, the country had a population of 33,800,393, according to Venezuela’s National Institute of Statistics, which projected an increase to 34.4 million by the end of 2025.

Migration: At least 7.9 million Venezuelans have migrated from the country in search of safety or better living conditions, according to UN figures. Most of these migrants have settled in South American countries such as Colombia, Peru and Chile.

Presidents

Maduro was sworn in on January 10, 2025, for a new term that is expected to last until 2031. His inauguration followed a declaration of victory in a July 2024 presidential election, which was disputed by the opposition and several governments in the region. He has been in power for almost 13 years since the death of his “political father,” Hugo Chávez, who ruled for nearly 14 years.

These are the presidents who have governed the country since 1958, when the dictatorship of Marcos Pérez Jiménez fell:

Resources and wealth

Venezuela’s main economic driver is oil, in a production model that is not very diversified. The country has the world’s largest reserves of extra-heavy crude, a variety that requires a more complex and expensive refining process but which is also compatible with US refineries.

Despite sanctions, crude oil exports rose in 2025 to an average of more than 900,000 barrels per day, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), exceeding production levels of the previous three years. However, this figure is less than half of what Venezuela pumped in 2013, and less than a third of the 3.5 million barrels per day produced before Chávez came to power in 1999.

Associated with this industry (and also characterized by low investment and exploration) are natural gas exports. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Venezuela has reserves of 5.5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, representing 73% of the reserves in South America.

In the last decade, faced with the fall in oil revenue, the government tried to give more impetus to mining and established the Orinoco Mining Arc as a “strategic development zone” to boost the exploitation of the area, with large deposits of gold, coltan, iron and bauxite.

However, it is an area with more artisanal than industrial activity and with a large presence of criminal groups and smugglers.

Business partners

Until 2023, the United States was the main destination for Venezuelan exports, which earned $3.81 billion annually (mainly from oil sales), according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Venezuela’s next-largest buyers were China ($739 million) and Spain ($670 million).

However, the situation shifted in mid-2024 when Washington tightened trade sanctions on Caracas, with the exception of some oil licenses. Since then, Venezuela has relied more heavily on other partners such as China, Russia, India and Turkey, although the government has not published recent official figures reflecting this shift. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in May that trade with Venezuela grew by 64% in 2024.

For its part, China’s General Administration of Customs reported that in 2024, imports from Venezuela grew year-on-year by 119%, followed by a moderate decline in the first half of 2025.

Main political allies

Since the beginning of the 21st century, Venezuela has established alliances and close ties with countries that oppose the regional and global leadership of the United States.

In Latin America, its closest allies are Cuba and Nicaragua, forming a group of three of the region’s most authoritarian and politically isolated countries.

“They perceive each other as necessary,” Venezuelan political scientist Ángel Álvarez told CNN.

Caracas once had stronger ties with other leftist governments, such as those of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro, but these nations distanced themselves after the 2024 presidential elections. However, some bridges have been rebuilt with shows of support from Brasília and Bogotá in the face of the US military deployment off Venezuela’s coast.

Caracas also has other, smaller allies in the Caribbean, forged during the oil boom, although in November the Maduro government suffered two setbacks with the defeat of the ruling party in Honduras and in the archipelago of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. A few months earlier, it also lamented the electoral defeat of Bolivia’s ruling Movement for Socialism, with which it had close ties.

Outside the region, Maduro has strengthened relations with two major powers: China and Russia. In November, he asserted that the relationship with Beijing is one of “deep, broad, and stable trust,” adding that he is working to deepen cooperation with Moscow. Venezuela also has reinforced its diplomatic ties with Iran, another US adversary. However, analysts consulted by CNN say the prospect that these countries would get involved in a US-Venezuelan military conflict is remote.

Distribution of power

The main positions of power within Venezuela’s ruling party are held by individuals who have played a leading role in the South American country’s politics for years. Some of them, such as Diosdado Cabello and Jorge Rodríguez, have held key positions since the time of Chávez, who died in office in 2013.

Chronology of tensions with the US

Tensions between Venezuela and the United States have risen throughout 2025. Trump began his second presidential term a few days after Maduro’s inauguration and has since exerted various forms of pressure.

After returning to the White House, Trump said he did not consider Maduro to be a democratically elected ruler. He also announced a policy of mass deportations, arguing that many migrants arriving in the US — including Venezuelans — bring crime and other ills with them, and he designated the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua as a foreign terrorist organization.

Maduro argued that his government is legitimate, rejected the notion that Venezuelan migrants are criminals and asserted that Venezuelan authorities are fighting the Tren de Aragua gang. The president even claimed that this criminal organization has already been dismantled, although he has not presented any evidence of that.

In March, tensions between the two governments escalated when the US deported more than 200 Venezuelan migrants, labeling them criminals, to the Terrorism Confinement Center (Cecot) in El Salvador. Venezuela criticized the move, calling it a “kidnapping,” and launched a campaign to demand their return. In July, following negotiations, Washington and Caracas reached an agreement that resulted in the return to Venezuela of the men sent to Cecot and the release of 10 Americans detained in Venezuela.

That same month, however, the US again increased pressure on Venezuela. The Treasury Department accused Maduro of leading the Cartel de los Soles, an alleged criminal organization that, according to Washington, engages in drug trafficking and money laundering. In August, the US also raised to $50 million a reward for “information leading to the arrest and/or conviction” of Maduro for violating US narcotics laws. The Venezuelan president has denied any wrongdoing.

By September, despite some attempts at rapprochement and calls for dialogue, tensions had escalated again. The US deployed military ships and aircraft to the Caribbean, ostensibly to combat drug trafficking, and began a series of attacks on boats it claimed were attempting to smuggle drugs into its territory. By mid-December, at least 30 vessels had been destroyed in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific, resulting in the deaths of more than 100 people.

Venezuela says these actions are illegal and meant to destabilize the Maduro government, a position shared by Colombia, which has been alarmed by US operations off its coast. However, the US says it will continue attacks aimed at curbing the influx of narcotics.

In December, Trump ordered a “total blockade” of US-sanctioned oil tankers, and the Coast Guard began intercepting vessels leaving from or arriving at the Venezuelan coast.

Trump, who had already authorized CIA operations inside Venezuela, said on December 12 that military ground actions in Venezuela would start soon because, he asserted, Washington will not allow drug traffickers to destroy American youth.

In this context, the CIA carried out a drone strike in December against a port facility on the coast of Venezuela, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to CNN, marking the first known US attack on a target within that country. The site is believed to have been used by the Tren de Aragua gang to store drugs, the sources added.

The Venezuelan government has not commented on the matter

History of Chavismo

The founding event of Chavismo, the movement that has governed Venezuela for over a quarter-century, was a failed coup attempt on February 4, 1992, led by Chávez, then a lieutenant colonel in the Venezuelan army, against President Carlos Andrés Pérez. Chávez was arrested, pardoned in 1994 and elected president in late 1998.

On his first day in office, Chávez promoted a new constitution that was subsequently approved by referendum at the end of 1999. Under the new constitution, he was elected in July 2000 to a six-year term.

In 2002, the president was briefly overthrown in a coup d’état following a massive march demanding his resignation, but he returned to power after 48 hours with the support of loyal military officers. In 2004, he faced a recall referendum promoted by the opposition, but 59% of Venezuelans voted to keep him in the presidency.

At the regional level, Chávez was one of the leaders of the movement “No to FTAA,” referring to the Free Trade Area of the Americas agreement proposed by the United States that was rejected in 2005. The following year, he gave one of his most famous speeches at the United Nations, when he referred to US President George W. Bush as “the devil.”

Chávez was reelected by a wide margin at the end of 2006, and the National Assembly passed a law authorizing the president to rule by decree for 18 months (a similar bill was passed in 2010). This marked the beginning of the socialist era known as the Bolivarian Revolution. In 2007, he withdrew Venezuela from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and nationalized the Orinoco Oil Belt, which contains the country’s largest oil reserves.

But that year he also suffered his first defeat at the polls, when Venezuelans rejected a referendum that would have granted broad powers to the presidency and established indefinite reelection. That provision was ultimately approved in a 2009 vote and allowed him to run again in 2012. In that presidential election, he defeated Henrique Capriles and appointed Maduro, then foreign minister, as his vice president.

Before assuming his third term, he announced that he had to travel to Cuba for cancer treatment and anointed Maduro as his successor. Chávez died on March 5, 2013.

Maduro assumed the presidency on an interim basis and narrowly defeated Capriles. The following year, he faced the first major wave of opposition protests, which left more than 40 dead, according to Foro Penal, a Venezuelan human rights group. In 2015, the United States began imposing sanctions against Venezuelan officials.

The opposition managed to win a majority of seats in the National Assembly at the end of 2015, the first major change in the legislature since 1999. But the Supreme Court declared the body in contempt and stripped it of its powers.

In 2018, with rampant hyperinflation and a migratory exodus underway, Maduro was reelected president in a vote boycotted by the opposition due to a lack of guarantees that the election would be free and fair.

He began his second term amid an energy crisis, protests and numerous international accusations of repression. He also faced pressure from countries that recognized the head of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, as interim president.

By 2022, Venezuela had emerged from hyperinflation through de facto alignment of its currency with the US dollar and an opening to foreign investment. More than 7 million people had already left the country, and a UN report documented crimes against humanity committed by the security forces.

The Maduro government participated in several negotiations with the opposition, without reaching any lasting agreements.

Ahead of the 2024 elections, the courts upheld the disqualification of María Corina Machado, who had won the opposition primaries by a wide margin. Later that year, the National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner of the presidential election over Edmundo González but did not release detailed results.

In 2025, following the start of Trump’s second term, Maduro faced unprecedented pressure. In addition to sanctions and bounties, Washington deployed a military presence in the Caribbean, threating to carry out attacks on Venezuelan territory.

Military capability

Under the government of Chávez, the Bolivarian National Armed Forces of Venezuela (FANB) rose to become a regional military power, largely through the sustained purchase of Russian equipment. However, the condition of the equipment and the training of the personnel remain a mystery in a country that has endured a decade of economic hardship.

Venezuela ranks 50th out of 145 countries in the 2025 rankings by the Global Fire Power website, based on official statistics and estimates. The United States ranks 1st, first, and some of Venezuela’s neighbors, such as Colombia (46th) and Brazil (11th), rank higher.

FANB has approximately 123,000 active soldiers, including 63,000 in the army; 25,500 in the navy; 11,500 in the air force and 23,000 in the national guard, in addition to 8,000 reservists, according to data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

After years of stagnation, Venezuela “recently resumed modest maintenance and modernization efforts,” according to an IISS report in 2024. The unknown factor is the size and capacity of its militias, mobilized in recent months following the US naval deployment. Maduro said he expected militia members, previously estimated at a few hundred thousand, to reach more than 8 million.

The army has purchased 92 T-72B1 tanks and 123 BMP-3 armored personnel carriers from Russia, which equip the armored brigades alongside 81 AMX-30 tanks previously acquired from France. Russian artillery systems such as the Msta-S self-propelled gun and the Smerch rocket launcher are also prominent.

In terms of military aviation, Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30MK2 twin-engine fighter-bombers are the pride of the Venezuelan defense system and are among the most powerful aircraft on the continent. But between accidents and logistical problems, it is unclear how many of the 25 aircraft purchased are still flying, according to a report by the Venezuelan independent monitoring group Control Ciudadano.

On the other hand, among its many antiaircraft missile systems, Venezuela’s 12 S-300 batteries (with a maximum range of 200 kilometers, or 124 miles), nine Buk systems, and 44 Pechora systems (medium-range) stand out. All are Russian-manufactured — a system that the FANB calls “Multi-Layer Aerospace Defense.” These three weapon systems are mobile: They are mounted on vehicles for rapid deployment and surpass any others deployed in Latin America in capability and technology.

Additionally, Venezuela says it has 5,000 Igla-S man-portable missiles — also Russian — that are operated by a single person and capable of shooting down targets at low altitude and short range.

For its part, the navy has lagged in arms purchases. It operates one Mariscal Sucre-class frigate (built in Italy) and one Type 209 submarine (built in Germany) in its fleet, according to the IISS, and has nine ocean and coastal patrol vessels, four of which were purchased from Spain.

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