Cuba is staring down a direct hit from Melissa. Here’s what to expect

By Mary Gilbert, CNN Meteorologist

(CNN) — After Melissa moves away from Jamaica, Cuba is next in line for the powerful hurricane’s fury. Landfall is expected very early Wednesday morning, likely a couple hours after midnight, but impacts have already begun.

Heavy rain is falling in Cuba with tropical storm-force winds reaching some coastal areas. Hurricane-force winds arrive late Tuesday and continue overnight. These winds will also generate up to 12 feet of life-threatening storm surge, especially around landfall — storm surge is where the winds push ocean water on shore, causing dangerous flooding.

The center of Melissa will track across eastern Cuba early Wednesday morning and enter the Atlantic Ocean likely just after sunrise.

The hurricane will then move through the central and southeastern Bahamas Wednesday. It could be a Category 3 or high-end Category 2 hurricane at the time. Once again, Melissa will bring heavy rainfall that can quickly trigger flash flooding and landslides, along with damaging winds and dangerous storm surge.

Melissa will really start picking up forward speed Wednesday evening and will begin to race northeastward. The hurricane could pass near Bermuda by Thursday night and deliver a quick dose of drenching rain and strong winds.

Hurricane Melissa’s Cuba impacts

Flooding rainfall: Parts of southeastern Cuba could see 20 to 30 inches of rain this week — more than enough to trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Destructive winds: Melissa will likely have sustained winds of around 130 to 140 mph near its center at landfall with higher gusts. Serious damage to buildings, trees and power lines is likely.

Storm surge: Melissa’s winds will generate up to 12 feet of storm surge for coastal southeastern Cuba, especially late today into Wednesday.

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