Inflation, it's what's for dinner

“You got to eat,” he said while shopping at Simpson’s AF Super Incorporated grocery store in Wathena, Kansas. “You just as well enjoy the holiday.”

Backyard barbecue enthusiasts like Braithwait, who plans to do his grilling at Lake Viking over the holiday weekend, are definitely experiencing some sticker shock. In April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 14.3% year-over-year increase in the cost of meat, poultry and eggs. An analysis for the North American Meat Institute found price hikes for most items that will wind up on the grill, including 11% for fresh pork, 10.5% for fresh beef, 9.6% for ground beef and 9% for fresh chicken.

It’s a far cry from just four years ago when a report from Missouri Farm Bureau highlighted ample supplies and falling prices for meat and pork on Memorial Day.

“It’s quite a bit higher than it used to be,” said Ulas Simpson, owner of Simpson’s AF Super for 40 years. “We’re on the wrong end to be controlling prices. I try to buy deals through the warehouse and pass them on to the customer.”

Both a small-town grocer like Simpson and a large trade group like the Meat Institute have the same question: Faced with high prices, will consumers cut back?

Simpson said he isn’t sure, although he’s noticed some subtle changes like cost-conscious consumers preferring their meat in smaller packages for single meals or larger quantities for bulk value at big gatherings like cookouts. With its own butcher on duty, Simpson said his store does everything possible to accommodate.

“If they want a smaller package, we’ll just take one and cut it in half,” he said. “It doesn’t really make us more money but it generates some business. We go out of our way to wait on people.”

Consumers are starting to make adjustments as prices continue to rise. According to a report from 210 Analytics, 17% of consumers now are shopping at multiple grocery stores to get the best deals, 35% of consumers are cutting back on restaurant spending and 51% of consumers are stocking up on food due to fears of future price increases. The report was compiled for the Meat Institute.

Sales of all categories of fresh meat were up 7.5% in terms of dollar value in April but down 3.4% based on the quantity of pounds sold, a sign that inflation is taking a toll. Ground beef — considered among the most cost-effective cuts — was up 11% in dollar sales but down 6% in terms of pounds.

The report from 210 Analytics forecasts that inflation will continue to boost dollar sales while putting pressure on unit sales.

Simpson said all he can do is look for deals on the wholesale level and hope for good weather for Memorial Day, the traditional start of the summer grilling season. While customers are more choosy, he believes many will still find it hard to resist the lure of steaks or hamburgers on a backyard grill.

“I think most of them will be cooking out,” he said. “It depends on the weather, of course.”